Valuation and comparison of the actual and optimal control strategy in an emerging infectious disease:Implication from a COVID-19 transmission model  

作　　者：Lili Liu Xi Wang Ou Liu Yazhi Li Zhen Jin Sanyi Tang Xia Wang 

机构地区：[1]Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention,Complex Systems Research Center,Shanxi University,Taiyuan,030006,China [2]School of Mathematical Sciences,Shanxi University,Taiyuan,030006,China [3]School of Mathematics and Statistics,Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities,Guizhou,Duyun,558000,China [4]School of Mathematics and Statistics,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an,710119,China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第2期354-372,共19页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12126349,12126350,12031010,12231012,12171295);the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province(202303021211003);Natural Science Foundation of Guizhou Province(No.QianKeHe Jichu-ZK[2021]Yiban002);Shanxi University's Training Program of Innovation and Entrepreneurship for Undergraduates(No.X202210108101).

摘　　要：To effectively combat emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19,it is crucial to adopt strict prevention and control measures promptly to effectively contain the spread of the epidemic.In this paper,we propose a transmission model to investigate the influence of two control strategies:reducing contact numbers and improving medical resources.We examine these strategies in terms of constant control and time-varying control.Through sensitivity analysis on two reproduction numbers of the model with constant control,we demonstrate that reducing contact numbers is more effective than improving medical resources.Furthermore,these two constant controls significantly influence the peak values and timing of infections.Specifically,intensifying control measures can reduce peak values,albeit at the expense of delaying the peak time.In the model with time-varying control,we initially explore the corresponding optimal control problem and derive the characteristic expression of optimal control.Subsequently,we utilize real data from January 10th to April 12th,2020,in Wuhan city as a case study to perform parameter estimation by using our proposed improved algorithm.Our findings illustrate that implementing optimal control measures can effectively reduce infections and deaths,and shorten the duration of the epidemic.Then,we numerically explore that implementing control measures promptly and increasing intensity to reduce contact numbers can make actual control be more closer to optimized control.Finally,we utilize the real data from October 31st to November 18th,2021,in Hebei province as a second case study to validate the feasibility of our proposed suggestions.

关 键 词：Emerging epidemic Transmission model Sensitivity analysis Actual control Optimal control 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]