A novel approach to model the role of mobility suppression and vaccinations in containing epidemics in a network of cities  

作　　者：Leen Alrawas Abdessamad Tridane Ghassane Benrhmach 

机构地区：[1]Department of Physics,New York University Abu Dhabi,Abu Dhabi,Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates [2]Department of Mathematical Sciences,United Arab Emirates University,Al Ain,Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates [3]Emirates Center for Mobility Research,United Arab Emirates University,Al Ain,Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates [4]Department of Statistics and Business Analytics,United Arab Emirates University,Al Ain,Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第2期397-410,共14页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：A.Tridane was supported by the UAEU UPAR,grant number 12S125.

摘　　要：This paper presents a comprehensive agent-based model for the spread of an infection in a network of cities.Directional mobility is defined between each two cities and can take different values.The work examines the role that such mobility levels play in containing the infection with various vaccination coverage and age distributions.The results indicate that mobility reduction is sufficient to control the disease under all circumstances and full lockdowns are not a necessity.It has to be reduced to different ratios depending on the vaccination level and age distribution.A key finding is that increasing vaccination coverage above a certain level does not affect the mobility suppression level required to control the infection anymore for the cases of young population and heterogeneous age distributions.By investigating several migration and commuting patterns,it is found that shutting mobility in a few local places is favored against reducing mobility over the entire country network.In addition,commuting-and not migration-influences the spread level of the infection.The work offers an exclusive combined network-based and agent-based model that makes use of randomly generated mobility matrices.

关 键 词：Agent-based modeling NETWORK EPIDEMICS 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]