Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19:Modeling and cost-effective optimal control  

作　　者：Sonu Lamba Tanuja Das Prashant K.Srivastava 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics,Indian Institute of Technology Patna Bihta–801106,Patna,Bihar,India [2]Department of Mathematics and Statistics,University of New Brunswick Fredericton,NB,E3B 5A3,Canada

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第2期569-600,共32页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：SL expresses gratitude to the Ministry of Education,Government of India,for the funding received under the Prime Minister's Research Fellows(PMRF)scheme[PMRF ID:2701459].

摘　　要：This study introduces a novel SI2HR model,where“I2”denotes two infectious classes representing asymptomatic and symptomatic infections,aiming to investigate and analyze the cost-effective optimal control measures for managing COVID-19.The model incorporates a novel concept of infectious density-induced additional screening(IDIAS)and accounts for treatment saturation.Furthermore,the model considers the possibility of reinfection and the loss of immunity in individuals who have previously recovered.To validate and calibrate the proposed model,real data from November–December 2022 in Hong Kong are utilized.The estimated parameters obtained from this calibration process are valuable for prediction purposes and facilitate further numerical simulations.An analysis of the model reveals that delays in screening,treatment,and quarantine contribute to an increase in the basic reproduction number R0,indicating a tendency towards endemicity.In particular,from the elasticity of R0,we deduce that normalized sensitivity indices of baseline screening rate(θ),quarantine rates(γ,αs),and treatment rate(α)are negative,which shows that delaying any of these may cause huge surge in R0,ultimately increases the disease burden.Further,by the contour plots,we note the two-parameter behavior of the infectives(both symptomatic and asymptomatic).Expanding upon the model analysis,an optimal control problem(OCP)is formulated,incorporating three control measures:precautionary interventions,boosted IDIAS,and boosted treatment.The Pontryagin's maximum principle and the forward-backward sweep method are employed to solve the OCP.The numerical simulations highlight that enhanced screening and treatment,coupled with preventive interventions,can effectively contribute to sustainable disease control.However,the cost-effectiveness analysis(CEA)conducted in this study suggests that boosting IDIAS alone is the most economically efficient and cost-effective approach compared to other strategies.The CEA results provide valuable insights into iden

关 键 词：COVID-19 IDIAS Estimation Prediction Optimal control Cost-effectiveness analysis 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]