大气氧化性污染物与气温对我国某地区人群疾病死亡影响的交互作用研究  

Interactive effects of oxidant air pollutants and temperature on disease mortality in a region of China

作　　者：刘英[1,2] 刘嘉彤 王金霞 虎勇 董学昊 王发选 张亚娟[1,2] LIU Ying;LIU Jiatong;WANG Jinxia;HU Yong;DONG Xuehao;WANG Faxuan;ZHANG Yajuan(Department of Occupational Health and Environmental Health,School of Public Health,Ningxia Medical University,Yinchuan 750004,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Diseases Control,Yinchuan 750004,China;Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu 610200,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏医科大学公共卫生学院职业卫生与环境卫生学系,银川750004 [2]宁夏环境因素与慢性病控制重点实验室,银川750004 [3]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院大气科学系,成都610200

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第9期1043-1052,1060,共11页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：宁夏自然科学基金(2022AAC03142)。

摘　　要：目的探究大气氧化性污染物与气温的单独效应,以及两者交互作用分别对我国某地区呼吸、循环系统疾病死亡的影响。方法使用2014―2018年中国某地区188039例人群死亡数据、大气污染物日均浓度资料和同期的气象资料,采用基于Poisson分布的广义相加模型(generalized additive model,GAM)及分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM)分别探讨大气氧化性污染物和气温对人群因循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响,采用双变量响应面模型和分层法探究两者交互作用对循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。结果O_(3)、NO_(2)和O_(x)每增加10μg/m^(3)对循环系统疾病死亡的累积效应最大值分别为0.82%(95%CI:0.30%~1.34%)、1.58%(95%CI:0.28%~2.90%)和1.11%(95%CI:0.51%~1.72%),对呼吸系统疾病死亡的累积效应最大值分别为0.53%(95%CI:0.31%~1.37%)、2.66%(95%CI:1.07%~4.27%)和1.22%(95%CI:0.22%~2.23%)。高温和低温对2种疾病死亡影响的差异较大,高温效应即时,低温效应滞后。使用交互作用相对超额危险度(relative excess risk due to interaction,RERI)评估交互作用的大小和方向,交互作用研究结果表明,高温与高浓度的NO_(2)(RERI=0.118,95%CI:0.031~0.206)对人群循环系统疾病死亡风险有协同放大作用,低温与高浓度的O_(3)(RERI=0.127,95%CI:0.104~0.150)、和O_(x)(RERI=0.025,95%CI:0.002~0.049)对人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险有协同放大作用。结论高温、低温和大气氧化性污染物(O_(3)、NO_(2)和O_(x))均能增加人群循环、呼吸系统疾病的死亡风险,高温与高浓度的NO_(2)、低温与高浓度的O_(3)、O_(x)对人群循环和呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险有协同作用。Objective To explore the individual and interactive effects of oxidant air pollutants and temperature on mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases in a defined Chinese region.Methods Using information from 2014 to 2018 in a Chinese region,including 188039 death cases,air pollutant concentrations,and meteorological records.A Poisson generalized additive model(GAM)and a distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)were applied to assess the impacts of atmospheric oxidative pollutants and temperature on mortality form respiratory and circulatory diseases.And the interactions between temperature and pollutants were evaluated using a bivariate response surface model and stratification method.Results For each 10μg/m^(3) increase in O_(3),NO_(2),and O_(x),the maximum cumulative excess risks of death from circulatory diseases were 0.82%(95%CI:0.30%-1.34%),1.58%(95%CI:0.28%-2.90%)and 1.11%(95%CI:0.51%-1.72%),respectively.Corresponding values for respiratory diseases were 0.53%(95%CI:0.31%-1.37%),2.66%(95%CI:1.07%-4.27%)and 1.22%(95%CI:0.22%-2.23%).The difference between the effects of high and low temperature on mortality of the two diseases was large,with an immediate effect of high temperature and a lagging effect of low temperature.The interaction effect and direction were evaluted using the relative excess risk due to interaction(RERI).Interaction studies showed that there was a synergistic amplification of the risk of death from circulatory diseases in the population by high temperature with high concentrations of NO_(2)(RERI=0.118,95%CI:0.031-0.206).And low temperature with high concentrations of O_(3)(RERI=0.127,95%CI:0.104-0.150),and Ox(RERI=0.025,95%CI:0.002-0.049)had a synergistic amplification effect on the risk of death from respiratory diseases in the population.Conclusions High temperature,low temperature and atmospheric oxidative pollutants(O_(3),NO_(2)and O_(x))all increase the risk of death from circulatory and respiratory diseases in the population.There is a synergistic amplification of the risk of d

关 键 词：大气污染 大气氧化性污染物 气温 死亡风险 交互作用 

分 类 号：R122.7[医药卫生—环境卫生学]