2017―2021年江西省流行性感冒活动水平与气象因素相关性分析  

Correlation analysis of influenza activity level and meteorological factors in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021

作　　者：傅伟杰[1] 章承锋[1] 程慧健[1] 丁晟[1] 叶兴 胡茂红[2] FU Weijie;ZHANG Chengfeng;CHENG Huijian;DING Sheng;YE Xing;HU Maohong(Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangxi Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention,Nanchang 330029,China;Department of Scientific Education Information,Nanchang City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanchang 330038,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,南昌330029 [2]南昌市疾病预防控制中心科教信息科,南昌330038

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第9期1069-1074,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：江西省科技厅重点研发计划一般项目(20203BBGL73162);江西省卫生健康委指导性项目(202211686,202410488)。

摘　　要：目的分析江西省流行性感冒(简称流感)活动水平、不同亚型流感流行活动水平和气象因子间的相关性,识别影响不同亚型流感活动水平流行的主要气象因子,为评价不同气象因子与流感活动水平的关联性和开展流感气象预测预警提供依据。方法收集2017―2021年江西省流感哨点医院各周采集的流感样病例(influenza-like cases,ILI)标本检测结果和同期气象数据,采用R 4.1.3软件进行描述性流行病学分析和相关分析,并采用广义线性模型进行多因素回归分析。结果2017―2021年江西省流感监测哨点医院ILI标本检测阳性率分别为19.46%、11.72%、20.24%、6.46%和8.27%,除2017年阳性率最高的季节在第3季度外,其他年份均在第1季度,且每年的优势流感病毒亚型不同;ILI标本流感病毒核酸检测阳性率与平均气温(r=-0.436,P<0.001)、日照时数(r=-0.165,P=0.007)、最大风速(r=-0.164,P=0.008)、最低气温(r=-0.406,P<0.001)和最高气温(r=-0.427,P<0.001)均呈负相关;各亚型流感中,新甲型H1N1、乙型流感病毒Victoria系(简称Victoria)和乙型流感病毒Yamagata系(简称Yamagata)流感与平均气温、最低气温以及最高气温均呈负相关,此外新甲型H1N1流感还与日照时数、日降水量呈负相关,Yamagata流感与最大风速呈负相关;回归分析显示,不同亚型流感与平均气温呈较强的负相关,与其他气象因素的关联差异无统计学意义。结论江西省流感活动水平与气象因素存在相关性,不同亚型流感检测阳性率与气象因素间的关联性存在差异,平均气温是影响流感活动水平的主要因素。Objective To analyze the correlation and interaction between the prevalence of different subtypes of influenza in Jiangxi Province,and to identify the main meteorological factors affecting the prevalence of different subtypes of influenza,so as to provide the basis for evaluating the correlation between different meteorological factors and influenza activity level,as well as for carrying out meteorological prediction and early warning of influenza.Methods The testing results of influenza-like cases(ILI)specimens from influenza sentinel hospitals in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 were collected weekly,along with meteorological data from the same period.Then,descriptive epidemiological analysis and correlation analysis were conducted using R 4.1.3 software,and generalized linear models were used for multi-factor regression analysis.Results The positive rate of ILI samples collected from sentinel hospitals of Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 were 19.46%,11.72%,20.24%,6.46%and 8.27%,respectively,with the highest positive rate occurring in the first quarter of each year except for the third quarter of 2017.Additionally,the dominant influenza virus subtypes varied annually.The positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid detection was significantly associated with mean air temperature(r=-0.436,P<0.001),sunshine hours(r=-0.165,P=0.007),maximum wind speed(r=-0.164,P=0.008),minimum air temperature(r=-0.406,P<0.001)and the maximum temperature(r=-0.427,P<0.001)that were all found to have a negative correlation.The subtypes of influenza,including influenza A(H1N1),influenza B virus Victoria lineage(Victoria)and influenza B virus Yamagata lineage(Yamagata for short),exhibited a negative correlation with average temperature,minimum temperature,and maximum temperature.Furthermore,H1N1 showed a negative correlation with sunshine duration and daily precipitation,while influenza Yamagata was negatively correlated with maximum wind speed.However,regression analysis revealed that the different subtypes of influenza were stron

关 键 词：流行性感冒 活动水平 气象因素 相关性分析 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]