基于天然气运价承受能力的价区划分策略  

Research on pricing zone division strategy based on natural gas tariff affordability

作　　者：于妮妮 张媛媛[1] 李金玥 王瑶 蔺彦文 陈思敏 YU Nini;ZHANG Yuanyuan;LI Jinyue;WANG Yao;LIN Yanwen;CHEN Simin(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(Beijing);PipeChina Engineering Technology Innovation Co.Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院 [2]国家管网集团工程技术创新有限公司

出　　处：《油气储运》2024年第10期1189-1199,共11页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“多零售商面临资金约束时供应商预付款融资策略研究”,71601184。

摘　　要：【目的】中国天然气运价现有的4价区划分方法未考虑价区内部各省(市)运价承受能力的差异,缺乏统一性、客观性。为了优化中国价区的划分,亟需从中国内地地区31个省(市)的运价承受能力角度研究价区划分策略。【方法】从经济、社会、能源、环境及天然气行业发展5个方面构建评价指标体系,通过建立熵权-TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)模型,得到影响各省(市)运价承受能力的一级指标得分与运价承受能力总得分;再选用组间联接的方法,将运价承受能力的一级指标得分与总得分分别进行系统聚类,通过肘部法则确定聚类类别数。【结果】基于两次评价模型得分聚类结果,山东、西藏的运价承受能力分别为最高、最低,故可各自单独归属为一类;中东部地区沿海省(市)运价承受能力与该价区内陆省(市)运价承受能力存在较大差异,广东、江苏、浙江等沿海省(市)天然气运价承受能力较高,而北京、天津、河北等内陆省(市)天然气运价承受能力相对较低且聚类结果稳定;此外,辽宁与东北价区中黑龙江、吉林的运价承受能力差异明显,但与中东部沿海省(市)的运价承受能力较为接近;中部其他省(市)评价得分较为集中,类内距离小。【结论】建议将中国天然气运价价区划分为6类,现有的中东部价区进一步细分为内陆价区与沿海价区,并将辽宁省归属为沿海价区,且山东、西藏单独划分为两个特殊价区,其余运价承受能力得分差距较小的中部省(市)划归为一类,使各价区间的运价承受能力更为接近,从而推动价区划分方式的变革。[Objective]The existing method of dividing natural gas pricing into four zones in China overlooks variations in tariff affordability among provinces(municipalities)within these price zones,thereby highlighting a lack of uniformity and objectivity.To optimize this pricing zone division,it is imperative to explore a pricing zone division strategy from the perspective of tariff affordability across the 31 provinces(municipalities)in China’s mainland.[Methods]An evaluation index system was initially constructed based on five aspects:economy,society,energy,environment,and the natural gas industry.Additionally,an entropy-weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)model was established,which was used to derive the scores of first-level indexes affecting tariff affordability across all the provinces(municipalities),as well as the total scores of tariff affordability.Furthermore,the between-group linkage method was chosen to cluster both the scores of first-level indexes and the total scores of tariff affordability.The number of clusters was determined using the elbow method.[Results]Based on the clustering results,Shandong and the Tibet Autonomous Region corresponded to the highest and lowest levels of tariff affordability,respectively,supporting their classification into separate zones.A significant difference in tariff affordability was revealed between coastal provinces and inland provinces within the pricing zone of central and eastern China.Specifically,tariff affordability in coastal provinces(municipalities)such as Guangdong,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang is relatively high,whereas it is comparatively low in inland provinces(municipalities)like Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,where the clustering results were also stable.Additionally,Liaoning,with a noticeable tariff affordability distinction compared to the rest of the northeastern China pricing zone,particularly Heilongjiang and Jilin,aligned more closely with the coastal provinces(municipalities)in central and eastern China.Other provin

关 键 词：天然气 运价 承受能力 价区划分 熵权-TOPSIS法 聚类分析 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] C939[经济管理—管理学]