模糊环境下的项目进度计划编制及风险量化方法  

Project schedule planning and risk quantification methods in fuzzy environment

作　　者：曹蔷楠 刘大伟 耿旭静 CAO Qiangnan;LIU Dawei;GENG Xujing(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;East Inner Mongolia Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hohhot 010010,China;Department of Economic Management,North China Electric Power University(Baoding),Baoding,Hebei 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司,呼和浩特010010 [3]华北电力大学(保定)经济管理系,河北保定071003

出　　处：《计算机应用文摘》2024年第20期153-155,共3页

摘　　要：项目实施过程通常受到多种不确定性因素的影响,这些因素可能导致进度计划偏离预期,甚至产生工期延误或费用超支的风险。文章首先利用模糊数描述了工序工期和直接费用的不确定性,其次建立了基于模糊集理论的项目进度计划编制方法,接着进一步提出了进度计划工期延误风险和费用超支风险的量化方法,最后通过案例验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。The implementation process of a project is often affected by various uncertain factors,which may cause the schedule to deviate from expectations,and even pose risks of project delays or cost overruns.This article first uses fuzzy numbers to describe the uncertainty of process duration and direct costs.Secondly,a project schedule planning method based on fuzzy set theory is established.Then,a quantitative method for the risk of schedule delay and cost overrun is proposed.Finally,the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method are verified through case studies.

关 键 词：进度计划编制 风险度量 模糊集理论 

分 类 号：TU71[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]