地方重点产业政策与企业全要素生产率——基于交错型DID识别策略的实证分析  

Local key industrial policies and firms’total factor productivity:An empirical analysis based on staggered DID identification strategy

作　　者：史九领 张兴祥[3] 洪永淼 SHI Jiuling;ZHANG Xingxiang;HONG Yongmiao(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation at UCAS,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学数字经济监测预测预警与政策仿真教育部哲学社会科学实验室(培育),北京100190 [3]厦门大学经济学院,厦门361005 [4]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第9期2747-2761,共15页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790049);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(71988101);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2023M743443)。

摘　　要：作为推动产业结构转型升级、促进经济高质量发展的主要手段,产业政策在国民经济发展中一直扮演着重要角色.本文基于“九五”至“十一五”时期省级地方政府五年规划文本数据和中国工业企业微观数据,构建一个交错型DID识别策略,实证分析了地方重点产业政策对企业全要素生产率的影响.研究发现:地方重点产业政策能够通过成本效应(财政补贴、税收减免、低息贷款)和竞争效应显著提升企业的全要素生产率水平,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立.进一步的分析表明,地方重点产业政策的制定和实施方式均会对产业政策的效果产生重要影响,结合地区比较优势制定以及分散化实施的地方重点产业政策效果均更好.本文的研究为产业政策对企业生产率的影响提供了中国经验上的证据,从而为政府更好地制定和实施产业政策、促进经济高质量发展提供有益借鉴.Industrial policy has always played an important role in promoting industrial structure transformation and high-quality economic development.Based on the Five-Year Plan of the province level local governments and the micro-data of Chinese industrial enterprises,this paper constructs a staggered DID identification strategy to empirically analyze the impact of local key industrial policies on firms'TFP.The study found that local key industrial policies can significantly improve the TFP of enterprises through policy effects(financial subsidies,tax breaks,low-interest loans)and competitive effects.Further analysis shows that the way local key industrial policies formulated and implemented will have an important impact on the effect of industrial policies.The impact of local key industrial policies formulated combining with the regional comparative advantage,or implemented dispersedly is better.This study provides Chinese empirical evidence for the impact of industrial policies on firms'productivity,which can provide useful reference for the government to formulate and implement industrial policies and promote high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：地方重点产业政策 全要素生产率 交错型DID 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济] F425