日本介入台海的新动向论析  

Analysis of Japan's New Trends in Intervening in the Taiwan Strait Affairs

作　　者：范强 FAN Qiang

机构地区：[1]华侨大学国际关系学院,福建厦门361100

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2024年第5期42-59,共18页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：2022年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“美日强化干涉台海问题与我国对策研究”(22YJCGJW001)。

摘　　要：为应对地区权力格局和安全形势变化,美国持续要求日本承担更多同盟责任,为确保美国安全承诺的有效性,日本不断提升自我防卫能力、强化同盟威慑力,日美逐步确立了应对包括台海在内的地区紧急事态的联合行动框架,试图强化对华威慑能力、维持台海现状,同时,日本不愿被完全卷入冲突,在台海问题上并未完全追随美国,保持了一定独立性,美日主从关系已经发生一定程度的变化,日本在台海局势中的重要性凸显,未来日本介入台海的能力和意愿直接关系到美日同盟介入台海的威慑能力,日本对台海的介入程度受到多方面限制,如不愿被卷入战争的考量、日台关系国际法地位、危机事态认定标准、社会舆论和经费等.In response to changes in the regional power structure and security situation,the United States has continuously urged Japan to take on more alliance responsibilities.To ensure the effectiveness of the U.S.security commitments,Japan has been continually enhancing its self-defense capabilities and strengthening its alliance deterrence.Japan and the U.S.have gradually established a joint operational framework for responding to regional emergencies,including the China Taiwan Strait.They aim to strengthen their deterrence capabilities against China and maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.However,Japan does not want to be fully drawn into the conflict and has maintained a degree of independence in its approach to the China Taiwan question.The traditional active-passive relationship in the U.S.-Japan alliance has undergone some changes,with Japan's importance in the China Taiwan question becoming more prominent.The extent to which Japan intervenes in the China Taiwan Strait directly relates to the deterrence capability of the U.S.-Japan alliance in intervening in China Taiwan-related issues.Several factors limit Japan's level of intervention in the Taiwan Strait,including its reluctance to be drawn into war,concerns about international law and Taiwan's status,criteria for crisis recognition,public opinion,and budgetary constraints.

关 键 词：美日同盟 日本 台海危机 台湾问题 威慑 

分 类 号：D822.331.3[政治法律—政治学]