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作 者:Lu Zhang Zihao Wang Nan Chang Meng Shang Xiaohui Wei Ke Li Jinyu Li Xinchang Lun Haoqiang Ji Qiyong Liu
机构地区:[1]National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,WHO Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management,Beijing 102206,China [2]School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China [3]School of Public Health,Cheeloo College Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,China
出 处:《Biosafety and Health》2024年第4期244-250,共7页生物安全与健康(英文)
基 金:supported by the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(32090023).
摘 要:Climatic factors are closely associated with the occurrence of vector‐borne diseases,and they also influence the distribution of vectors.The occurrence of plague is closely related to the population dynamics of fleas and their host animals,as well as climatic conditions.This study focused on Xilingol League,utilizing climatic and flea index data from 2012 to 2021.Spearman correlation and"Boruta"importance analysis were conducted to screen for climatic variables.A generalized additive model(GAM)was employed to investigate the influence of climatic factors and rodent density on the flea index.GAM analysis revealed distinct trends in flea index among different rodent hosts.For Meriones unguiculatus,the flea index declined with increased density and with higher humidity,yet rose with greater lagged sunshine duration.For Spermophilus dauricus,an initial increase in flea index with density was observed,followed by a decrease,and a rise in the index was noted when ground temperatures were low.This study reveals the nonlinear interactions and lag effects among climatic factors,density,and flea index.Climatic factors and density variably influence the flea index of two Yersinia pestis hosts.This research advances the prediction and early warning efforts for plague control,providing a theoretical basis for rodent and flea eradication strategies.
关 键 词:Climate change PLAGUE FLEA Meriones unguiculatus Spermophilus dauricus
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