中国燃煤电厂碳捕集、利用与封存投资综合效益预测  

Comprehensive benefit prediction of carbon capture,utilization, and storage investment in coal-fired power plantsin China

作　　者：周小琳[1] 刘亚雯 韩洁平[1] 朴哲勇 孟涛 ZHOU Xiaolin;LIU Yawen;HAN Jieping;PIAO Zheyong;MENG Tao(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132000,China;State Grid Guyuan Power Supply Company,Guyuan 750006,China;State Grid Baicheng Power Supply Company,Baicheng 137000,China;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changchun 130000,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学经济管理学院学院,吉林132000 [2]国网固原供电公司,固原756000 [3]国网白城供电公司,白城137000 [4]国网吉林省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,长春130000

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第8期1604-1619,共16页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72174039)。

摘　　要：【目的】二氧化碳捕集、利用及封存(CCUS)技术是燃煤电厂减排降碳的核心工具,被视为实现碳中和目标的关键。然而,中国在CCUS方面的投资经济回报低、综合效益不确定且难以衡量,CCUS仍处于示范阶段,精准预测CCUS投资效益,对明确技术路径、优化资源配置,并推动其商业化具有科学意义。【方法】本文以燃煤电厂为研究对象,运用系统动力学方法,从经济发展、电力能源、环境减排和社会保障4个维度,对中国燃煤电厂CCUS投资的综合效益进行预测。【结果】研究发现:(1)燃煤电厂加装CCUS技术后,CCUS投资综合效益经历了从低位徘徊、波动上升到快速增长的变化。(2)在技术进步与规模效应的推动下,CCUS投资效益显著提升。技术进步提高了捕集效率并降低成本;而规模效应则通过装机容量增加与碳减排效率的提升,增强了经济、环境与社会效益,整体投资回报大幅改善。(3)政府补贴、碳税和碳交易价格均显著提升CCUS投资效益。其中,碳交易价格对经济效益和环境减排的推动作用最为显著;而碳税则通过提高发电成本,不仅间接促使企业进行CCUS技术改造,还进一步提升了整体投资效益。相比之下,政府补贴在初期对社会保障效益的促进作用尤为突出。【结论】在CCUS商业化部署和综合效益提升的过程中,CCUS自身迭代和规模化带来的成本降低起到核心作用,碳市场交易机制相对于补贴等政策扶持措施对CCUS发展的激励作用更大。基于此,中国应加强CCUS技术研究、推动CCUS项目尽快纳入碳交易机制、制定适度CCUS补贴激励政策,以增加CCUS投资效益,助力实现碳中和目标。[Objective]Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)technology is a core tool for reducing emissions and carbon output in coal-fired power plants and is considered key to achieving the carbon neutrality goals.However,in China,the economic returns on investment in CCUS are low,the overall benefits are uncertain and difficult to measure,and CCUS is still in the demonstration phase.Accurately forecasting the benefits of CCUS investment is of critical scientific significance for clarifying technological pathways,optimizing resource allocation,and promoting its commercialization.[Methods]This study took coal-fired power plants as the research subject and employed the system dynamics method to predict the comprehensive benefits of CCUS investment in Chinese coal-fired power plants from four dimensions:economic development,electric energy,environmental emission reduction,and social security.[Results](1)The study found that after coal-fired power plants were equipped with CCUS technology,the comprehensive benefits of CCUS investment experienced a change from low-level stagnation to fluctuating increases,and then rapid growth.(2)Driven by technological progress and economies of scale,the benefits of CCUS investment have significantly increased.Technological progress has improved capture efficiency and reduced costs,while economies of scale have enhanced economic,environmental,and social benefits through increased installed capacity and improved carbon reduction efficiency,greatly improving overall investment returns.(3)Government subsidies,carbon taxes,and carbon trading prices all significantly enhance the benefits of CCUS investment.Among them,the carbon trading mechanism has the most notable impact on economic benefits and environmental reduction,while the carbon taxes,by increasing power generation costs,not only indirectly motivates enterprises to implement CCUS technology upgrades but also further improves overall investment efficiency.[Conclusion]In the process of commercial deployment and comprehensive benefit

关 键 词：燃煤电厂 碳捕集、封存与利用(CCUS) 投资效益 系统动力学 技术进步 规模效应 政府补贴 碳市场激励 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]