考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法  

A framework planning method for distribution networks considering the source-load correlation and uncertainty

作　　者：赵高帅 罗涛 闫大威 张章 董晓红[2] 靳小龙[2] ZHAO Gaoshuai;LUO Tao;YAN Dawei;ZHANG Zhang;DONG Xiaohong;JIN Xiaolong(Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300170,China;Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]国网天津市电力公司经济技术研究院,天津300170 [2]天津大学智能电网教育部重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《浙江电力》2024年第10期65-74,共10页Zhejiang Electric Power

基　　金：国网天津市电力公司科技项目(经研-研发2023-09)。

摘　　要：当前,配电网网架规划在提高电网可靠性和稳定性方面发挥了关键作用,但往往忽视了源荷出力的相关性,导致弃光率高、配电网网架投资大、线路利用率低等问题。为此,提出一种考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法。首先结合源荷历史数据,考虑光伏和负荷出力的时序自相关性,利用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法生成源、荷场景集,并计及源荷互相关性,设计源荷联合场景削减方法;其次考虑源荷出力不确定性,确定典型源荷联合场景及其概率;然后构建期望光伏消纳水平最大、期望年投资运行成本最小、线路过载概率期望值最小的配电网网架多目标优化规划模型,并考虑相关约束;采用改进NSGA-II算法求解,生成配电网网架规划方案。最后,讨论帕累托前沿解之间的差异以及不同参数对规划结果的影响,为规划决策者提供备选方案。At present,distribution network framework planning plays a critical role in enhancing grid reliability and stability.However,the correlation between source and load outputs is often neglected,leading to a high rate of solar power curtailment,significant investment in the distribution network framework,and low line utilization rates.To address these issues,this paper proposes a framework planning method for distribution networks that considers the correlation and uncertainty of source and load output.Firstly,historical data on source and load is analyzed,ac-counting for the temporal autocorrelation of photovoltaic(PV)and load outputs.Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)and Cholesky decomposition are employed to generate source-load scenario sets.By incorporating their correlation,a load reduction method under these scenarios is designed accordingly.Secondly,the uncertainty in source and load outputs is considered to determine typical source-load scenarios and their probabilities.A multi-objective optimiza-tion planning model is developed for the distribution network.This model aims to maximize expected PV consump-tion,minimize the expected annual investment and operational costs,and minimize the expected value of line over-load probability,while considering relevant constraints.The improved NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve this model and generate a distribution network framework planning scheme.Finally,the differences among Pareto frontier solu-tions and the impact of various parameters on the planning results are discussed,providing planners with alternative options for decision-making.

关 键 词：源荷不确定性 源荷联合场景 光伏消纳水平 线路过载概率 配电网 网架规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]