碳达峰背景下沿海城市群道路交通节能减排潜力  

Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Potential of Road Traffic in Coastal Urban Agglomerations Under Background of Carbon Peak

作　　者：张兰怡 徐艺诺 王硕 谢郑一 翁大维 王振昊 胡喜生 郑娉婷 ZHANG Lanyi;XU Yinuo;WANG Shuo;XIE Zhengyi;WENG Dawei;WANG Zhenhao;HU Xisheng;ZHENG Pingting(College of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学,交通与土木工程学院,福州350108

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2024年第5期45-55,共11页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202410389034);福建省自然科学基金(2023J01475);福建省社科规划项目(FJ2022B065)。

摘　　要：基于我国“双碳”目标战略,为探究沿海城市群道路交通节能减排潜力,本文以福建省沿海城市群为研究对象,构建长期能源替代规划系统模型,设置3个一级情景与4个二级子情景。通过调整机动车保有量及燃油经济性等因素模拟分析研究区域道路交通的减排潜力与趋势。研究结果表明:在所有情景中,改进政策情景(MPS)表现出最优的节能减排效果,其节能减排潜力最大。与基准情景相比,到2035年,MPS情景有望实现节能59.3%。该情景下温室气体与污染物排放的趋势均呈现显著下降,减排效果显著。从具体车型的节能减排潜力来看,在MPS情景下,小型载客汽车(汽油)、重型载货汽车(柴油)和轻型载货汽车(汽油)具有最大的节能潜力;8种车型的碳排放可在2025年达峰;且污染物排放能有效控制,其中重型载货汽车(柴油)的污染物减排潜力最大。研究证实推进综合政策落实,加快传统燃料汽车的淘汰以及优化道路车辆结构等措施,将对实现绿色低碳目标产生积极影响。通过模型模拟,福建省沿海城市群道路交通系统有望在2030年前实现显著的节能减排效果。In alignment with China's strategic"dual-carbon"goals,this paper aims to investigate the potential for energy saving and emission reduction in the road transportation system of coastal urban agglomerations.Taking the coastal urban agglomerations in Fujian Province as an example,a long-range energy alternatives planning system model(LEAP)has been constructed,three primary scenarios and four secondary sub-scenarios have been developed.The emission reduction potential and trend of regional road traffic were studied by adjusting the parameters of vehicle ownership and fuel economy.The study indicates that among all scenarios,the Modified Policy Scenario(MPS)demonstrates the most superior energy saving and emission reduction effects,with the greatest potential for energy conservation and emission reduction.Compared to the Business as Usual(BAU)scenario,the energy saving of the MPS is expected to be improved by 59.3%,by 2035.Under the MPS scenario,the trends in greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions both show a significant decline,with remarkable emission reduction effects.Looking specifically at the energy-saving and emission reduction potential of different vehicle types,under the MPS scenario,small-duty gasoline passenger vehicle(SGPV),heavy-duty diesel freight vehicle(HDFV),and light-duty gasoline freight vehicle(LGFV)have the greatest potential for energy conservation;carbon emissions from 8 types of vehicles can peak by 2025;and pollutant emissions can be effectively controlled,with the greatest potential for pollutant emission reduction found in HDFV.The research confirms that advancing the implementation of comprehensive policies,accelerating the phase-out of traditional fuel vehicles,and optimizing the structure of road vehicles will have a positive impact on the realization of the green and low-carbon goals.Through model simulation,it is anticipated that the road traffic system of the coastal urban agglomerations in Fujian Province will achieve significant energy-saving and emission-reduction effects before 2

关 键 词：城市交通 减污降碳 LEAP模型 道路交通 能源消耗 沿海城市群 

分 类 号：U491.9[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] X734[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]