基于LSTM的溶解氧滚动预报预警平台构建——以珠江三角洲典型河段为例  

Construction of dissolved oxygen rolling forecast and early warning platform based on LSTM——Taking the typical reaches of the Pearl River Delta as an example

作　　者：胡艳芳 陈昭婷 赵长进 李小宝 胡浩锋 HU Yanfang;CHEN Zhaoting;ZHAO Changjin;LI Xiaobao;HU Haofeng(South China Institute of Environmental Science,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Guangzhou 510655,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部华南环境科学研究所,广州510655

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2024年第5期163-169,共7页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2020B1111350001);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2022A1515111025)。

摘　　要：溶解氧是衡量水环境质量的综合性指标,也是近几年影响珠三角水环境质量达标的关键因子之一,实现对溶解氧的准确预测并嵌入到环境决策支持系统,对于区域水环境管理工作意义重大。考虑到传统的机理模型计算复杂,需要的数据获取难度大,对于大数据时代下智能化的水质预测问题并不适用,因此利用断面自动站连续观测数据构建了长短时记忆网络(LSTM)模型,实现了对珠三角典型河段溶解氧的滚动预测,并按照数据层、应用层和表现层的规范设计研发了珠江三角洲典型河段溶解氧滚动预报预警平台。该平台能够直观、实时、动态展示珠三角溶解氧时空变化,并基于溶解氧预测结果进行分级预警,将为区域水环境管理提供科学有效的技术支撑。Dissolved oxygen is a comprehensive index to measure water environmental quality and a key factor affecting water environmental quality standards in the Pearl River Delta in recent years.It is of great significance for regional water environmental management to achieve accurate prediction of dissolved oxygen and embed it into environmental decision support system.Considering that the traditional mechanism model is complicated to calculate and difficult to obtain the required data,it is not suitable for intelligent water quality prediction in the era of big data.Therefore,a Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)model was constructed by using the continuous observation data of automatic water quality section stations.The model realized the rolling forecast of dissolved oxygen in typical river reaches of the Pearl River Delta.Decision Support Platform for Comprehensive Management of Dissolved Oxygen in Typical Reaches of the Pearl River Delta was designed and developed according to the specification of data layer,application layer and presentation layer.The platform could intuitively and dynamically display the spatial and temporal changes of dissolved oxygen in the Pearl River Delta in real time,and perform hierarchical early warning based on the prediction results of dissolved oxygen,which would provide scientific and effective technical support for regional water environmental management.

关 键 词：环境决策支持系统 溶解氧 滚动预报 LSTM 珠三角 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]