租金预期、土地流出阻滞与政策目标反噬——论需求拉动型农业规模经营政策退出的必要性  

Rent Expectations,Land Outflow Stagnation and Policy Target Backlash:On the Negative Effects of Demand-Pull Scaled Agricultural Operation Policy

作　　者：王士海 范超 WANG Shihai;FAN Chao(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,安徽合肥230036

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期42-54,共13页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University:(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION)

基　　金：教育部高校人文社会科学规划项目“代际传承视角下内生性家庭农场发展研究:基于鲁皖两省的实证”(20YJA790064);安徽省哲学社会科学重点项目“承包地块权属性细碎固化趋势下安徽省农户自主互换的生发机理、多主体需求与制度构建研究”(AHSKZ2021D08);安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重大项目“再延包背景下安徽省承包地细碎化治理评估与治理机制优化研究”(2022AH040115)。

摘　　要：随着政府农业规模经营工作的推进,地租在过去十年间持续上涨。这让农民形成地租持续上涨预期,对土地流转行为产生影响。建立一个农民预期流转模型,并利用山东和安徽两省四年的农户调查数据实证研究农业经营者地租上涨预期对其土地流出行为的影响,并以此为基础讨论需求拉动型规模经营政策退出的必要性。研究显示,土地上涨预期对农业经营者的土地流出行为存在显著的负面影响,且这种影响有着模型设定上的稳健性。土地经营规模较大农户、高龄农民和青年农民等供给弹性相对较小的个体更不容易受到地租预期的影响。农业经营者土地上涨预期是一系列与土地流转相关的政策变量和经济变量作用的结果,其中村民获得规模经营奖励和最高地租,即当地标志性的农业流转项目应该是最核心的变量。由于工农产业关联,需求拉动型农业规模经营政策会导致农业和工业竞争力的持续衰退。因此,首先,应重新审视农业补贴方式,从价格支持转变为直接补贴;其次,稳定粮食市场价格,从而稳定地租市场预期;再次,避免实施超大规模的土地流转项目,坚持农业经营模式的内生性发展路径,构建内生性核心农户培育制度。With the government’s promotion of scaled agricultural operation,land rent has increased rapidly in the past ten years,which has led farmers to an expectation of land rent increase,thus affecting the land transfer behaviour.This study establishes a model of farmers’expectation of land transfer,empirically examines the impact of agricultural operators’expectation of land rent increase on their land outflow behaviour by using four-year survey data from Shandong and Anhui provinces.On this basis,the necessity of the withdrawal of demand-pull scaled operation policy is discussed.The study reveals that the expectation of land rent increase has a significant negative effect on the land outflow behaviour of agricultural operators,and this effect is robust to modelling.Individuals with relatively low supply elasticities,such as farmers with larger land operation scales,senior farmers and young farmers,are less susceptible to land rent expectations.The agricultural operators’expectation of land price increase is the result of a series of policy and economic variables related to land transfer,among which the villagers’incentives for scaled operation and the highest land rent,i.e.,the local landmark agricultural transfer program,should be the most central one.Due to the industrial-agricultural linkage,the demand-pull scaled agricultural operation policy will lead to a continuous decline of agricultural and industrial competitiveness.Therefore,it is suggested that:(1)agricultural subsidies should be re-examined and changed from price support to direct subsidies;(2)grain market prices should be stabilized to temper the expectation of the land rent market;(3)the implementation of excessively large-scale land transfer projects should be avoided;the endogenous development path of the agricultural business model should be adhered to,and an endogenous system of cultivation of core farmers should be constructed.

关 键 词：地租上涨预期 土地流出 规模经营奖补 需求拉动型农业规模经营政策 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]