广东珠海市降雨型崩塌滑坡预警阈值研究  

Study on warning rainfall threshold for rainfall-induced collapses and landslide geological hazards in Zhuhai City,Guangdong Province

作　　者：曾新雄 刘佳 赖波 赵风顺 江山 ZENG Xinxiong;LIU Jia;LAI Bo;ZHAO Fengshun;JIANG Shan(The First Geological Brigade of Guangdong Geological Bureau,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519001,China;Guangdong Zhuhai Engineering Exploration Institute,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519001,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省地质局第一地质大队,广东珠海519001 [2]广东省珠海工程勘察院,广东珠海519001

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2024年第5期141-150,共10页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：珠海市2021年度科技计划项目(ZH22036204200048PWC)。

摘　　要：珠海市雨量充沛,常诱发崩塌、滑坡等突发性地质灾害。文章对珠海市2013—2021年发生的342个崩塌、滑坡地质灾害数据以及特征雨量进行综合分析,总结出珠海市崩塌、滑坡灾害发生与当日降雨量和前4天累计降雨量密切相关,属典型的降雨型崩塌滑坡;通过分析研究灾害发生与降雨的关系,建立了基于有效降雨量阈值的E-D预警模型,并基于2021—2023年珠海市发生的153个崩塌、滑坡地质灾害数据进行预警效果检验,预警准确率为91.5%;以2022年5月12日为例进行单次预警检验,预警命中率为94.7%,漏报率为5.3%,一、二、三级预警区的空报率为16.2%。据此证明建立的E-D预警雨量阈值模型适合珠海实际,可为预警系统的阈值模型改进提供技术依据,也为类似花岗岩地区崩塌、滑坡地质灾害预警技术研究提供借鉴方法。Zhuhai City experiences abundant rainfall,which often triggers sudden geological hazards such as landslides and collapses.This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of 342 landslide and collapse events that occurred in Zhuhai City between 2013 and 2021,along with their associated rainfall characteristics.The study concludes that the occurrence of landslides and collapses in Zhuhai City is closely related to the daily rainfall and the cumulative rainfall over of the previous four days,classifying these events as typical rainfall-induced collapses and landslides.By analyzing the relationship between hazard occurrence and rainfall,an E-D early warning model based on effective rainfall thresholds was established.The model was tested using 153 collapse and landslide geological disasters from 2021 to 2023 in Zhuhai,resulting in an early warning accuracy of 91.5%.A single early warning test on May 12,2022,showed a hit rate of 94.7%,a missed report rate of 5.3%,and a false alarm rate of 16.2%for the first,second,and third-level warning zones.The E-D early warning rainfall threshold model established in this study is suitable for the actual conditions in Zhuhai and can provide technical support for improving threshold models in early warning systems.It also offers a reference method for studying early warning techniques for collapse and landslide hazards in similar granite regions.

关 键 词：降雨型崩塌滑坡 有效降雨量 E-D预警模型 预警雨量阈值 珠海 

分 类 号：P649[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]