基于收益管理的空铁联运动态定价研究  

Dynamic Pricing of Air-Rail Intermodal Transport Based on Revenue Management

作　　者：杨凯名 景云[1] 刘嘉琦 季明辰 YANG Kaiming;JING Yun;LIU Jiaqi;JI Mingchen(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2024年第10期178-185,193,共9页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：北京交通大学智慧高铁系统前沿科学中心项目(2020JBZD007);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2019JBM030)。

摘　　要：空铁联运作为提供“一票式出行”的联程运输模式,仍由民航公司给予铁路一定补贴价格形成合作,简单的定价策略不利于空铁联运在与高速铁路、民航的竞争中长久发展。将空铁联运视为拥有独立定价权的第三方运输方式,提出一种适应旅客弹性需求的动态递归定价方法。将旅客保留价格作为时变随机变量,根据旅客需求时变特征描述旅客保留价格分布,结合旅客到达率描述旅客出行选择购票过程,构建空铁联运一体化动态定价模型,提出售罄概率代替机会成本的Pred-M算法以解决模型计算周期长的问题。实例以天津—广州客运通道为对象,设置高中低3种需求场景,给出不同需求下的空铁联运预售期定价方案,使空铁联运组织模式适应中长途旅客运输市场竞争环境。Air-rail intermodal transport,as an intermodal transport mode that provides“one-ticket travel”,is still subsidized by civil aviation companies to form cooperation with railroads at a certain price.The simple pricing strategy is not conducive to the long-term development of air-rail intermodal transport in competition with high speed railways and civil aviation.This paper proposed a dynamic and recursive pricing method that adapted to the elastic demand of passengers by considering air-rail intermodal transport as a third-party transport mode with independent pricing rights.The passenger reservation price was taken as a time-varying random variable,and the distribution of passenger reservation price was described according to the time-varying characteristics of passenger demand.According to the passenger arrival rate,the passenger travel selection and ticket purchase process were described,and the dynamic pricing model for air-rail intermodal transport was established.The Pred-M algorithm with the probability of sold-out instead of opportunity cost was proposed to solve the problem of the long computation period of the model.The paper studied the Tianjin-Guangzhou passenger corridor,set up three scenarios involving high,medium,and low demands,and provided a pricing scheme of air-rail intermodal transport during the pre-sale period under different demands so that the organization mode of air-rail intermodal transport can adapt to the market-oriented competitive environment of medium-and long-distance passenger transport.

关 键 词：空铁联运 收益管理 动态定价 微观映射 动态递归 

分 类 号：U297[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] F512.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]