区域环境与健康:模式识别、历时演化与互动效应  

Regional Environment and Health:Pattern Recognition,Diachronic Evolution and Interactive Effects

作　　者：俞立平 项伟珍[1] 冉嘉睿 YU Li-ping;XIANG Wei-zhen;RAN Jia-rui(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018;Collaborative Innovation Center of Statistical Data?Engineering,Technology&Application,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江工商大学统计数据工程技术与应用协同创新中心,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《统计学报》2024年第5期67-80,共14页Journal of Statistics

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金重点项目“制造业从数量型创新向质量型创新转型机制研究”(Z21G030004);浙江省重点建设高校优势特色学科(浙江工商大学统计学)。

摘　　要：中国在经济社会发展变革时期环境与健康问题凸显,研究二者的演化模式与影响机制具有重要意义。在测度2010—2017年中国31个省市的环境与健康数据的基础上,利用四分区模型对结果进行动静态分析,同时通过联立方程和分位数回归模型探究环境与健康的互动效应。结果表明:环境状况在地理位置上无显著规律,健康状况东部地区好于中西部地区;“环境—健康”上升模式的地区升级幅度不大,区域上以中西部地区为主,进程上以演化后期为主;“环境—健康”平稳模式占区域演化大多数,下降模式多见于北方地区;环境与健康存在互动良性关系,且弹性系数随各自改善而降低。During the period of transformative socioeconomic development in China,environmental and health issues have become more prominent.It was of significant importance to study the evolving patterns and influencing mechanisms of the two.Based on measuring environmental and health data from China’s 31 provinces and cities from 2010 to 2017,this paper utilized a four-quadrant model to conduct both static and dynamic analyses of the results.Additionally,the interaction effects between environment and health was explored through simultaneous equations and the quantile regression model.The results showed that,there was no significant geographical pattern regarding environmental conditions.However,the health condition was better in the eastern region compared to the central and western regions.The upgrade in regions following an“environment-health”ascending pattern was limited,with the central and western regions being predominant,and the process was mainly in its later stages of evolution.The“environment-health”stable pattern accounted for the majority of regional evolution,while the descending pattern was more commonly seen in northern regions.There existed a positive interactive relationship between environment and health,with elasticity coefficients decreasing as each improves.

关 键 词：环境污染 健康保障 历时演化 互动效应 模式识别 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]