不确定性、政府担保与政府或有债务治理——基于政府或有债务实践演进、理论进展与经验启示  

Uncertainty,Government Guarantees,and Government Contingent Liabilities——Based on the Evolution of Government Contingent Liability Practice,Theoretical Researchand Empirical Insights

作　　者：冯静[1] 张德勇[1] FENG Jing;ZHANG Deyong(National Academy of Economic Strategy,CASS,100006)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100006

出　　处：《财经智库》2024年第3期97-118,142,143,共24页Financial Minds

基　　金：中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划(DF2023YS27);中国社会科学院财经战略研究院2024年度创新工程“现代财税体制建设与中国式现代化”(2024CJYA02);中国社会社科院财经战略研究院2022年度课题页“国家治理、渐进式改革与政府债务显性化研究”。

摘　　要：政府或有债务是一种源于政府担保且在特定情况下可能发生也可能不发生的支付义务。从国际视角分析政府或有债务的实践演进与理论研究进展,可以发现:政府“最后担保人”角色决定了政府担保是对冲不确定的有力工具,也被各国广泛运用于充当实现宏观经济调控与社会公平目标的政策手段。然而,部分担保政策自身“拙劣”的制度设计,使得政府本身正成为加剧公共不确定性的因素。担保产生的或有支付义务,一旦大规模集中显性化将对宏观经济造成显著负面冲击。对于上述“双刃剑”功能,一方面需要我们积极审慎运用这一政策工具,稳定信心、撬动资源;另一方面更要关注担保引起的潜在风险及其显性化概率。在推进中国式现代化进程中,积极借鉴国外或有债务治理经验,立足国内实践与理论探索,以深化财税体制改革为契机,将债务风险防治与预警“内嵌”于体制机制当中,提高化解重大风险能力,为高质量发展全面推进中国式现代化提供可靠安全保障。For the government,contingent liability is a legal obligation for it to make payments only if particular events occur.According to international experience,the government's role and positioning as the"last guarantor"make government guarantees a powerful tool for hedging uncertainty in the evolution of government guarantees and contingent liability practices and theoretical research.At the same time,as a policy tool with low immediate costs,government guarantees have been widely used by countries to achieve macroeconomic regulation and social equity goals.Once the payment obligation looms large,however,these guarantees will have a significant negative impact on the macroeconomy.Thus,in view of the"double-edged sword"function of government guarantees,we need to use this low-cost policy tool with prudence to hedge risks,and be alert to the potential payment risks.In the process of advancing Chinese modernization,we should draw on the experience of international contingent liability governance,and"embed"the early warning and prevention function into the system and mechanism while planning a new round of fiscal and tax system reform,to disperse and reduce public risks,reduce the probability of centralized contingent government payment obligations,and provide reliable support for high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：或有债务 隐性债务 政府担保 深化财税体制改革 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]