基于AHP-EWM多目标决策模型的北京应急避难场所承载力评价  

Carrying capacity evaluation of Beijing emergency shelters based on AHP-EWM multi-objective decision modeling

作　　者：尤笛 王世新 王福涛 闫珺 王振庆 刘文亮 朱金峰 王丽涛 侯艳芳 YOU Di;WANG Shixin;WANG Futao;YAN Jun;WANG Zhenqing;LIU Wenliang;ZHU Jinfeng;WANG Litao;HOU Yanfeng(Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院空天信息创新研究院,北京100094 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《遥感学报》2024年第9期2276-2292,共17页NATIONAL REMOTE SENSING BULLETIN

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(编号:2021YFB3901201,2022YFC3006402,2022YFC3006403)。

摘　　要：应急避难场所可以在灾害发生后供居民紧急避难、救援和疏散,是国家公共安全和应急管理的重要组成部分。评价应急避难场所的承载力,对于推进韧性城市建设、促进城市可持续发展具有重要意义。北京市是世界上仅有的3个位于设防烈度为Ⅷ度区域的首都之一,也是中国最早建设应急避难场所的城市,在应急避难方面具有典型性和代表性。本文采用遥感影像、POI等多源数据,构建基于AHP-EWM多目标决策的城市应急避难场所承载力评价模型,并以人口分布比较集中的北京市五环内为例进行分析评价和情景模拟。首先,从安全性、可达性、有效性和保障性4个方面构建应急避难场所承载力评价指标体系;其次,采用层次分析法(AHP)、熵权法(EWM)主客观赋权,并用最大离差平方和理论求解权重系数;然后,构建多目标决策评价模型,对应急避难场所承载力进行评价;最后,考虑灾害发生后的复杂性,对不同避难情景下的承载力进行模拟分析。结果表明,北京五环内的应急避难场所承载力整体较好,但二—三环承载力为优的区域占地面积为0,存在环域间的不均衡性。本研究可为城市应急避难场所承载力评价提供定性和定量的依据,也可为应急避难场所的规划布局和资源高效配置提供决策支持。Emergency shelters can be used for sheltering,rescue,and evacuation of residents after a disaster.These structures are an important part of national public security and emergency management.Evaluating the carrying capacity of emergency shelters is important in promoting the construction of resilient cities and the sustainable development of cities.Beijing is one of only three capital cities in the world that are located in a zone of Ⅷ degree of intensity.It is also the earliest city in China to build emergency shelters,and thus,it is typical and representative in terms of emergency evacuation.In this study,we use remote sensing images,POI,and other multi-source data to construct an evaluation model of the carrying capacity of urban emergency shelters based on multi-objective decision making,and take the Fifth Ring Area of Beijing,where the population distribution is relatively concentrated,as an example.First,according to the principle of establishing evaluation indexes,evaluation indexes are selected from four aspects:safety,accessibility,effectiveness and security,and relevant experts in disaster evaluation are invited to screen out 14 indexes according to their importance and relevance,constituting a system of evaluation indexes for the carrying capacity of emergency shelters.Second,subjective and objective weighting methods are used to determine the weights to make up for the lack of single weights.Subjective assignment adopts Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),and objective assignment adopts Entropy Weighting Method(EWM).Commonly used weight combination is the average of subjective and objective weights,while this study adopts maximum sum of squares of deviations theory to solve the optimal weight coefficients of the combination of assignments.Then,based on the multi-objective decision-making model,a 30 m×30 m grid was used as the evaluation unit,and a multi-objective linear weighting method was used to calculate the evaluation scores of the carrying capacity of the emergency shelter.And the natural disconti

关 键 词：遥感 应急避难场所 层析分析法(AHP) 熵权法(EWM) 组合赋权 承载力评价 多目标决策法 情景模拟 北京 

分 类 号：P2[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]