未来农村人口老龄化:迁出与回流  

Future Aging of Rural Population:Migration and Backflow

作　　者：石人炳[1] 虎经博 SHIRen-bing;HU Jing-bo(School of Sociology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430074)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学社会学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中央民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第5期113-124,共12页Journal of Minzu University of China(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：2021年度国家社会科学基金项目“性别失衡背景下的城乡异向婚姻挤压问题研究”(项目编号:21BRK005)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着中国城镇化进程的不断加速,迁移流动已经成为农村人口发展的主导模式,人口的迁出和回流相互交织,在农村人口老龄化进程中发挥着重要作用。本文基于人口普查和相关人口数据,运用队列要素法,通过对生育、迁出和回流因素的设定,估算了2022—2050年农村人口老龄化的整体趋势,并在此基础上分析未来农村老年人口年龄结构。研究结果表明:在考虑人口回流因素后,农村老年人口规模和老龄化程度均有所增加,中老年人口回流对农村人口老龄化起到了加速作用;农村高龄化程度不断加深,且高龄人口存在性别失衡;老年抚养比持续增加,农村劳动力人口抚养负担较重。研究结论的政策启示是,要合理估计农村老龄化程度,正确理解农村人口变化趋势,重视老年贫困问题和高龄化应对;用发展的眼光看问题,释放农村老年人口红利。As China's urbanization process accelerates,migration has become the dominant pattern of rural population development.The intertwined phenomena of population outflow and backflow migration play a significant role in the aging process of the rural population.Based on census data and relevant demographic data,this paper uses the cohort-component method to estimate the overall aging trend of rural population from 2022 to 2050 by setting factors including fertility,outflow,and backflow migration.On this basis,it analyzes the future aging structure of the rural elderly population.The research results show that after considering the factor of population backflow,the scale and degree of rural elderly population have both increased,and the backflow migration of middle-aged and elderly people accelerates rural population aging.The degree of aging in rural areas continues to deepen,with an evident gender imbalance among the elderly population.The elderly dependency ratio is continuously increasing,placing a heavy burden on the rural labor force.The policy implications by the conclusions of this article are to reasonably estimate the degree of rural aging,correctly understand the trends in rural population changes,and pay attention to issues of elderly poverty and addressing the issue of aging.We should take perspective of development,so as to unleash the demographic dividend of the rural elderly population.

关 键 词：农村 人口老龄化 人口回流 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]