Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative:The case of Pakistan  

作　　者：Zhanming Chen Yasir Amin Ruiping Jiang Shan Guo Yuyuan Wen Xinye Zheng 

机构地区：[1]School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing,China [2]School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing,China

出　　处：《Economic and Political Studies》2024年第3期235-249,共15页经济与政治研究（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Nos.72004225 and 72274206];the fund for building world-class universities(disciplines)of Renmin University of China[Project No.KYGJC2023009].

摘　　要：This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)on Pakistan using the synthetic control method.Based on the panel data of 42 non-BRI countries,we construct a synthetic Pakistan to estimate the economic growth trend of the country without the BRI.By comparing the actual economy with the synthetic case,our results show that the BRI increases the annual per capita GDP growth rate of Pakistan from 3.04%to 4.69%for the period 2013-2018.Pakistan’s per capita GDP in 2018 would have been Int$5,022 instead of Int$5,567 if the BRI had not existed.The outcomes of the in-time placebo test,in-place placebo test,and dropping sample test all confirm the robust impact of the BRI on Pakistan.

关 键 词：Belt and Road Initiative economic growth Pakistan synthetic control method 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]