城市规模、产业集聚模式选择与城市经济效率  

City Size, Industrial Agglomeration Pattern Selection, and Urban Economic Efficiency

作　　者：黄阳平[1] 甘景丰 林欣 HUANG Yangping;GAN Jingfeng;LIN Xin(Jimei University,Xiamen,China)

机构地区：[1]集美大学财经学院,361021

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第8期20-38,共19页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于城市规模和产业集聚协同演进的中国城市效率提升路径研究”(21AJL009)。

摘　　要：大城市的规模继续扩大真的不利于城市经济效率的提升吗?不同规模的城市应该发展何种产业集聚模式呢?本文以2003-2019年中国281个地级及以上城市为研究对象进行实证检验。研究发现:第一,城市规模对城市经济效率的影响总体上呈现先负后正的U型关系,由负转正的平均城市规模为174万人。第二,专业化集聚程度的提高加强了规模-效率间的U型关系,城市规模小于129万人时,规模对效率的抑制作用得到增强,规模大于129万人时,促进作用得到增强。多样化集聚程度的提高减弱了规模-效率间的U型关系,城市规模小于237万人时,规模对效率的抑制作用得到减弱,规模大于237万人时,促进作用得到减弱。第三,专业化集聚和多样化集聚对城市经济效率的直接影响分别是城市规模开口向上和向下的二次函数。本文的研究结论为如何更合理配置人口资源、发挥产业集聚优势、提高城市经济效率提供了经验证据和政策启示。Does the continued expansion of large cities indeed hinder the improvement of urban economic efficiency? Previous literature suggests that at the early stages, urban economic efficiency increases with the expansion of city size. However, after surpassing a certain threshold(referred to as the optimal city size), urban economic efficiency begins to decline with the further increase in city size, indicating an “inverted U” shaped relationship between city size and urban economic efficiency. However, this conclusion that applies to mature cities' development in Western countries may not be consistent with the development of Chinese cities. The economic development of large cities in China seems to further increase with the expansion of city size. Taking into consideration the strong drive for urbanization in China, what kind of industrial agglomeration patterns should China's cities of different sizes select? Does the paradigm of “large and diversified, small and specialized” still apply?To explore these questions, this paper first reviews the viewpoints in previous literature regarding the agglomeration effects and congestion effects of the expansion of city size. It then proposes that “at the current stage, the marginal benefits of increasing city size in China may not have begun to decrease and the marginal costs may not have begun to increase”, and provides explanations from aspects of public service supply capacity, potential for the development of the digital economy, and industrial structure. Finally, this paper constructs a balanced panel dataset of 281 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from the China City Statistical Yearbook from 2003 to 2019 for empirical testing. The theoretical analysis of this paper demonstrates the nonlinear relationship between city size and urban economic efficiency, with different industrial agglomeration patterns exerting moderating effects. Therefore, to address the problem of omitted variable bias, this paper constructs an econometric model with quadra

关 键 词：城市规模 产业专业化集聚 产业多样化集聚 城市经济效率 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]