“禁、限”政策能否长效缓解交通治理困境?——基于替代效应的实证分析  

Can the“Prohibition and Restriction”Policy Alleviate the Traffic Governance Dilemma in the Longterm?An Empirical Study Based on the Substitution Effect

作　　者：肖潇 程跃[2] 刘鑫 Xiao Xiao;Yue Cheng;Xin Liu

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学公共管理学院 [2]广西大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《公共行政评论》2024年第5期4-25,196,共23页Journal of Public Administration

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“公共治理视阈下跨区域合作创新网络多主体协同发展机制研究”(72164002)。

摘　　要：“禁、限”政策常被用以解决交通治理问题,从禁止摩托车到限制电动车再到限行燃油车,但“禁、限”政策能否长效解决政府交通治理难题,仍是一个尚未得到检验的问题。论文基于绿色低碳、可持续的政府发展目标,以各类交通工具对城市负外部性影响程度,即“污染”“事故率”“拥堵率”为衡量指标对出行工具进行了分类。从民众视角和政府视角出发,找出双方对出行工具选择的矛盾点,并以此构建了替代分析模型。从调整车辆结构占比以达成治理目标为研究逻辑,找出平衡政府和民众不同利益诉求的动态均衡方式。研究发现,“禁、限”政策对交通治理成效存在双路径:其一是出行需求向绿色低碳、可持续出行工具转移,这种转移方式会促使政府和民众达成利益均衡,实现交通的长效治理。其二是出行需求向个体交通体系转移,该种转移方式仅满足了民众出行需求,但不符合政府治理目标,会陷入“禁止——替代品出现——禁止替代品——新替代品出现”的循环困境。The government often manages traffic problems with policies like prohibition and restriction,from prohibiting motorcycles to restricting electric motorcycles or fossil-fuel cars.Whether"prohibition and restriction"are effective traffic solutions remains unclear.Based on the government,s environmental protection,low-carbon,and sustainable development governance philosophy,this study classified means of transportation in a city based on their degree of negative external influences—pollution,accidents,congestion.From the perspective of the government and the public,this paper shows the contradictions between the two sides in their choices of transportation and introduces an alternative analysis framework.Adjusting the proportion of vehicles in use to achieve governance objectives is one way to find a dynamic equilibrium between the different interests of the government and the public.Furthermore,this paper identifies two paths for the impact of prohibition and restriction policies on traffic management.The first is to shift travel demand to a green,low-carbon,sustainable mode,which will push the government and the public to reach a balance of interests that can organically achieve long-term governance of transport.The second is to shift to the individual mode.This kind of transfer only meets people,s travel needs,but it does not achieve governance goals and will assuredly fall into the cycle of"prohibition-substitutes-prohibited substitutes-new substitutes."

关 键 词：替代效应 马尔科夫预测模型 绿色低碳 治理创新 政策评估 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]