欧盟半导体政策:对冲视角下的同盟协调与威胁认知  

EU Semiconductor Policy:Alliance Coordination and Threat Perception from a Hedging Perspective

作　　者：蔡翠红[1] 刘贝宁 CAI Cuihong;LIU Beining

机构地区：[1]复旦大学美国研究中心 [2]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院 [3]法国巴黎政治学院

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2024年第4期34-59,I0002,I0003,共28页Chinese Journal of European Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“总体国家安全观视域下的数字主权研究”(项目编号:23AZZ002)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在当前数字技术与地缘政治交织的背景下,半导体技术成为技术竞争和国际权力平衡的关键。随着全球半导体竞争激化,欧盟对半导体产业政策的关注也显著增加,呈现出转型的趋势和特点。通过二元对冲策略框架,本文分析了欧盟半导体产业政策转型的原因,强调美欧同盟关系的紧密程度和欧盟对华威胁的认知这两大因素对欧盟策略演变的影响。随着对中国科技崛起认知的增强和对跨大西洋联盟信任的减少,欧盟倾向于追求战略自主,形成了一种特殊形式的对冲。在对欧盟既往产业政策进行梳理和分析的基础上,本文深化了对中美欧在半导体政策与策略上互动的理解,为评估欧盟半导体产业政策提供了新的理论和实证分析框架,同时也为科技领域管控中欧分歧、拓展合作空间提供了启示。In the context of the deeply intertwining between digital technologies and geopolitics,semiconductor technology has become the key to technological competition and the international balance of power.With the intensification of global competition,the EU's focus on semiconductor industrial policy has been elevated significantly,showing a trend and characteristics of transformation.Through the binary hedging strategy framework,this paper analyses the reasons for the transformation of the EU's semiconductor industrial policy,highlighting the impacts of two major factors on the evolution of the EU's strategy,that is,the closeness of the US-EU alliance and the EU's perception of the so-called threat posed by China.As perceptions of China's rapid technological advances have been enhanced and trust in the transatlantic alliance diminishes,the EU tends to pursue strategic autonomy,thus creating a particular form of hedging.Based on an analysis of the EU's past industrial policies,this paper deepens the understanding of the interaction between China,the US and the EU on semiconductor policies and strategies,provides a new theoretical and empirical analytical framework for assessing the EU's semiconductor industrial policies,and at the same time sheds light on how to manage China-EU disagreements in the field of science and technology and expand the space for cooperation.

关 键 词：欧盟政治 对冲策略 半导体政策 同盟关系 威胁认知 

分 类 号：F416.63[经济管理—产业经济]