2024年欧洲议会选举及其影响——新一届欧洲议会党团的结盟与竞争格局  

The 2024 European Elections and Its Impacts:Coalitions and Competition among the Political Groups in the New European Parliament

作　　者：张磊[1] ZHANG Lei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院欧洲研究所

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2024年第4期87-112,I0004,共27页Chinese Journal of European Studies

摘　　要：第十次欧洲议会选举结果显示,中右翼的欧洲人民党党团议席有所增加,继续保持议会第一大党团的地位,右翼民粹政党获得更多议席,复兴欧洲党团和绿党党团则失去不少席位。新一届欧洲议会出现“右转”,且更加两极分化和“碎片化”。在右翼民粹政党力量日益上升的背景下,一方面,欧洲议会主流党团之间更加团结,构建大联盟共同应对右翼民粹政党的挑战,欧盟未来大部分政策将保持连续性,包括增强欧洲防务能力和经济安全等;另一方面,党团内部的分歧和党团之间的竞争也会同时加剧,政策的不确定性增强。在部分政策领域,主流党团针对右翼民粹政党的“防御措施”会有所松动,右翼大联盟将成为可能,移民和气候等政策将会“右转”。未来人民党党团将扮演“造王者”的角色,对构建获胜联盟至关重要。新一届欧洲议会的对华立场和未来的中欧关系不会发生大的转变。After the tenth European Elections,the number of seats held by the center-right European People's Party(EPP)Group have increased,maintaining its position as the largest political group in the European Parliament.The right-wing populist parties have gained more seats,while the Renew Europe and the Greens have lost seats.This result makes the new European Parliament"turn right",which has become more polarized and fragmented.In the face of the increasing seats for right-wing populist parties,the mainstream political groups in the European Parliament are becoming more united and building a grand coalition to jointly address the challenges of the populist parties.In the future,most of the EU's policies will be kept unchanged,including enhancing European defence capabilities and economic security.While on the other hand,internal divisions within and competition among the political groups will intensify,leading to increased policy uncertainty.In some policy areas,the mainstream political groups'"cordon sanitaire"measures against right-wing populist parties will be loosened,and a big right-wing coalition becomes possible.Policies in areas such as immigration and climate change will shift to the right.The EPP will play the role of a"king maker"which is crucial for building a winning coalition in the future.The new European Parliament's position on China and EU-China relations in the near future will not change significantly.

关 键 词：欧洲议会选举 右翼民粹政党 议会党团格局 政党政治 中欧关系 

分 类 号：D75[政治法律—政治学] D822.35[政治法律—中外政治制度]