物价与税收的动态影响关系——基于面板VAR模型的实证分析  

The Dynamic Relationship between Prices and Taxation——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model

作　　者：白彦锋 贾亦真 BAI Yan-feng;JIA Yi-zhen(School of Public Finance and Tax,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政税务学院,北京102206

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2024年第9期66-80,共15页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“推进共同富裕的数字财税治理研究”(22VRC121)。

摘　　要：2023年我国物价涨幅仅为0.2%,成为近十年的最低位,这势必要求政府发力,运用积极的宏观政策进行调控,提振市场信心。物价运行对税收增长的影响值得深入分析,在此基础上有助于更好地研判税收经济走势并采取有针对性的调控措施。选取2012-2022年中国省级面板数据,构建面板VAR模型,分析物价与税收的动态相互影响,并进一步探讨物价与增值税、消费税、企业所得税等主要税种多个变量间的动态关系。实证结果表明,物价与税收之间存在双向因果关系,物价水平对税收具有先强后弱的正向影响,且这一影响长期持续;税收对物价水平在短期内能够产生较强的负向影响,但长期趋于零。物价水平变动对税收的冲击在中部地区、中等收入群体中表现最强烈;税收变动对物价的冲击则在西部地区、高收入群体中表现最强烈。最后,从稳定物价和税收政策入手,提出要强调跨周期和逆周期宏观调控相结合,注重税收政策的提质增效;优化税制结构,提高直接税比重;继续实施减税降费政策,以扩大内需为突破点,提振市场信心。The price increase in 2023 was only 0.2%,becoming the lowest in nearly a decade.This will inevitably require the government to exert efforts and use active macroeconomic policies to regulate and boost market confidence.The impact of price fluctuations on tax growth deserves in-depth analysis,on this basis,it helps us to better assess the trend of tax economy and take targeted regulatory measures.This article selects provincial panel data in China from 2012 to 2022,constructs a panel VAR model,analyzes the dynamic interaction between prices and taxes,and further explores the dynamic relationship between prices and multiple variables of major taxes such as value-added tax,consumption tax,and corporate income tax.The empirical results indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between prices and taxation.Price levels have a positive impact on taxation that is first strong and then weak,and this impact is long-lasting.Taxation can have a strong negative impact on price levels in the short term,but tends to zero in the long term.The impact of price level changes on taxation is most pronounced in the central region and middle-income groups;and the impact of tax changes on prices is most pronounced in the western region and high-income groups.Finally,starting from stabilizing prices and tax policies,it is proposed to emphasize the combination of cross cycle and countercyclical macroeconomic regulation,and focus on improving the quality and efficiency of tax policies;optimize the tax system structure and increase the proportion of direct taxes;and continue to implement tax reduction and fee reduction policies,with expanding domestic demand as the breakthrough point to boost market confidence.

关 键 词：物价 税收收入 面板VAR模型 税制结构 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]