桂林地区暴雨天气电离层VTEC时序预报模型适用性  

Applicability analysis of ionospheric TEC time series forecast model for rainstorm in Guilin

作　　者：毛志锋 刘立龙[1,2] 黄良珂 韦律权[1,2] 任丁 魏朋志 MAO Zhifeng;LIU Lilong;HUANG Liangke;WEI Lyvquan;REN Ding;WEI Pengzhi(Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial lnformation and Geomatics,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541006,China;College of Geomatics and Geoinformation,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541006,China;Liuzhou City Vocational College,Liuzhou 545036,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室,广西桂林541006 [2]桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院,广西桂林541006 [3]柳州城市职业学院,广西柳州545036

出　　处：《桂林理工大学学报》2024年第3期481-488,共8页Journal of Guilin University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42064002);广西自然科学基金项目(2017GXNSFDA198016)。

摘　　要：针对极端天气下VTEC的不规律变化更会增加预测难度的问题,以欧洲定轨中心(CODE)提供的桂林上空2019和2020年电离层VTEC值为样本值,使用滑动四分位距法探测桂林地区暴雨期间的电离层VTEC扰动规律,并建立多种预报模型比较暴雨期间的模型适用性及预报精度。选取5种时间序列预测模型(ARIMA模型和Single、 Holt、 Brown、 Damped指数平滑模型)对桂林市暴雨期间的电离层VTEC进行未来24 h内的短期预报,结果表明:4~9 h以内ARIMA模型预测效果最好,预测值的RMSE和MAE均小于2 TECu, Single和Damped指数平滑模型其次,Holt和Brown指数平滑模型预测效果最差;超过9 h后各模型的预测能力减弱,RMSE和MAE均大于3 TECu,已无法满足精确预测的需求。The irregular changes of VTEC in extreme weather will increase the difficulty of prediction. TheVTEC values of the ionosphere in Guilin in 2019 and 2020 provided by the European Orbit Determination Center(CODE) are used as the sample values. The sliding quartile distance method is used to detect the ionosphericVTEC disturbance law during the rainstorm in Guilin, and a variety of prediction models are established to comparethe applicability and prediction accuracy of the models during the rainstorm. In this paper, five time seriesprediction models(ARIMA model, Single exponential smoothing model, Holt exponential smoothing model,Brown exponential smoothing model and Damped exponential smoothing model) are selected to predict the ionosphericVTEC during the rainstorm in Guilin in the next 24 h. The results show that the ARIMA model has thebest prediction effect within 4-9 h, and the RMSE and MAE of the predicted values are less than 2 TECu. Singleexponential smoothing model and Damped exponential smoothing model are second, and Holt exponentialsmoothing model and Brown exponential smoothing model have the worst prediction effect. After more than 9 h,the prediction ability of each model is weakened, RMSE and MAE are greater than 3 TECu, which can not meetthe needs of accurate prediction.

关 键 词：暴雨 VTEC 时间序列预测模型 桂林 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]