计及水电季节波动的容量充裕性绩效支付策略  

Capacity adequacy performance payment strategy considering seasonal fluctuations in hydropower

作　　者：马铭松 卞国良 龚建国 MA Mingsong;BIAN Guoliang;GONG Jianguo(Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132011,China;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou Power Supply Company,Hangzhou 310016,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学,吉林吉林132011 [2]国网浙江省电力有限公司杭州供电公司,浙江杭州310016

出　　处：《电气应用》2024年第10期85-92,共8页Electrotechnical Application

摘　　要：长期稳定充裕的发电容量和灵活可调资源是电力市场稳定运行的关键之一。新能源的不确定性以及水电出力的周期性对电力市场容量和可调资源的充裕性提出了更大挑战。针对此挑战,通过分参数的核密度估计方法对不同时期误差概率进行概率建模,在置信概率下计算动态的备用容量需求,并引入容量充裕性绩效支付,最后对比了新方法与传统容量支付制度以及拍卖在市场中的激励效果,得出新方法有助于可调的灵活机组获得更好的回收成本。The long-term stability and adequacy of power generation capacity and flexible adjustable resources are crucial for the stable operation of the electricity market.The uncertainty of new energy sources and the periodicity of hydropower output pose greater challenges to the adequacy of capacity and adjustable resources in the electricity market.To address this challenge,a parameterized kernel density estimation method is employed to probabilistically model the error probabilities at different time periods.Dynamic reserve capacity requirements are calculated under confidence probability and capacity adequacy performance payments are introduced.Finally,the incentive effects of the new method are compared with traditional capacity payment systems and market auctions in the market.

关 键 词：季节性容量 容量市场 备用容量 核密度估计 绩效支付 

分 类 号：TV74[水利工程—水利水电工程]