Comparing trends of crop and pasture in future land-use scenarios for climate change mitigation  

作　　者：Maxime Malbranque Xiangping Hu Francesco Cherubini 

机构地区：[1]Industrial Ecology Program,Department of Energy and Process Engineering,Norwegian University of Science and Technology,N-7491,Trondheim,Norway

出　　处：《Geography and Sustainability》2024年第3期470-481,共12页地理学与可持续性（英文）

基　　金：funded by the Norwegian Research Council through the project MitiStress(Grant No.286773).

摘　　要：Revegetation of former agricultural land is a key option for climate change mitigation and nature conservation.Expansion and abandonment of agricultural land is typically influenced by trends in diets and agricultural inten-sification,which are two key parameters in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs).Datasets mapping future land dynamics under different SSPs and climate change mitigation targets stem from different scenario assump-tions,land data and modelling frameworks.This study aims to determine the role that these three factors play in the estimates of the evolution of cropland and pastureland in future SSPs under different climate scenarios from four main datasets largely used in the climate and land surface studies.The datasets largely agree with the rep-resentation of cropland at present-day conditions,but the identification of pastureland is ambiguous and shows large discrepancies due to the lack of a unique land-use category.Differences occur with future projections,even for the same SSP and climate target.Accounting for CO_(2)sequestration from revegetation of abandoned agri-cultural land and CO_(2)emissions from forest clearance due to agricultural expansion shows a net reduction in vegetation carbon stock for most SSPs considered,except SSP1.However,different datasets give differences in estimates,even when representative of the same scenario.With SSP1,the cumulative increase in carbon stock until 2050 is 3.3 GtC for one dataset,and more than double for another.Our study calls for a common classifica-tion system with improved detection of pastureland to harmonize projections and reduce variability of outcomes in environmental studies.

关 键 词：Natural forest regrowth Scenarios AGRICULTURE Climate change mitigation 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P33[天文地球—水文科学]