基于K-均值聚类法和EOF分析的贵港市台风暴雨特征分析  

Analysis the Characteristics of typhoon rainstorm in Guigang based on K-Means Clustering Method and EOF Analysis

作　　者：蒙金凤 龙俊宇 梁虹 梁毅进 MENG Jinfeng;LONG Junyu;LIANG Hong;LIANG Yijin(Guigang Meteorological Bureau,Guangxi Guigang 537100,China)

机构地区：[1]贵港市气象局,广西贵港537100

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2024年第3期44-49,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西气象科研计划项目(桂气科2023QN16、桂气科2023M27、桂气科2023M28)。

摘　　要：利用实况观测资料、中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集,采用K-均值聚类法,结合经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法,分析研究2010—2023年间影响贵港市的65个台风造成的暴雨特征。结果表明:(1)有39个台风造成暴雨,每年平均有2.8次台风暴雨,7、8月是台风暴雨的集中期,港南区南部、覃塘区中西部及桂平北部山区台风暴雨多且高发。(2)根据K-均值聚类分析,将65个台风分为A、B、C类。A、B类台风源地为西北太平洋,C类台风多来自南海。A、B类台风以西北行为主,C类台风路径复杂且在北部湾活跃。B类台风强度最强,C类台风强度最弱。(3)根据贵港市三类台风暴雨第一特征向量空间分布情况分析,A、B类台风暴雨年降雨量表现为全市普遍偏多或者普遍偏少分布型式,C类台风暴雨的年降雨量变化趋势主要为桂平东北部、南部和平南西北部偏多,其余地区偏少,或者桂平东北部、南部和平南西北部偏少,其余地区偏多。Using the observation data and the best track dataset of typhoons from the China Meteorological Administration to analyze the characteristics of rainstorms caused by 65 typhoons affecting Guigang from 2010 to 2023 using the K-means clustering method combined with the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)analysis method.The results indicate that:(1)there are 39 typhoons caused rainstorms,with an average of 2.8 typhoon-induced rainstorms per year,and the concentrated period for these rainstorms is in July and August.The southern part of Gangnan District,the central and western part of Qin Tang District,and the northern mountainous area of Guiping are the areas with more frequent and severe typhoon rainstorms.(2)Based on the K-means clustering analysis,the 65 typhoons were classified into three categories:A,B,and C.Typhoons of categories A and B originated from the northwest Pacific,while category C typhoons mostly came from the South China Sea.Typhoons of categories A and B were primarily characterized by northwestward movement,whereas category C typhoons had complex paths and were active in the Beibu Gulf.Category B typhoons were the strongest,while category C typhoons were the weakest.(3)The analysis of the spatial distribution of the first principal component vectors of the three types of typhoon rainstorms in Guigang showed that the annual rainfall of categories A and B typhoon rainstorms was generally more or less distributed throughout the city,while the annual rainfall variation trend of category C typhoon rainstorms was mainly characterized by more rainfall in the northeastern part of Guiping,the southern part,and the northwestern part of Pingnan,with less rainfall in the remaining areas,or less rainfall in the northeastern part of Guiping,the southern part,and the northwestern part of Pingnan,with more rainfall in the remaining areas.

关 键 词：台风暴雨 K-均值聚类法 EOF分析 时空变化 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]