土地财政、市场化改革与育龄人群生育意愿——来自中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的经验证据  

Land Finance,Marketization and Fertility Intention of the Reproductive Age Population--Empirical Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)

作　　者：高亚飞 吴瑞君[2] 王金营[3] GAO Yafei;WU Ruijun;WANG Jinying(Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200030,China;School of Social Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030 [2]华东师范大学社会发展学院,上海200241 [3]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第5期72-83,共12页Population and Development

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“增强综合实力的中国人口长期发展战略研究”(21ZDA108);国家社会科学基金项目“家庭多主体成员互动影响下的生育决策路径与机制研究”(22BRK030)。

摘　　要：土地财政和市场化改革是理解近中期我国社会经济发展的两条主线,两者不仅形塑和引领了宏观经济运行与社会结构变迁,更深刻改变了微观个体的行为决策。利用中国综合社会调查并结合多种宏观数据,从经济制度演进的宏观视角探究土地财政、市场化改革对育龄人群生育意愿的影响和意义。研究发现:(1)地方政府土地财政通过抬升房价、抑制政府民生财政支出、阻碍民营经济发展、降低全要素生产率,对育龄人群生育意愿产生了一定负面影响。(2)市场化是一种有利于资源配置和社会福利增长的经济制度,它能有效提升育龄人群的社会信任感、生活满意感,进而对生育意愿产生正向激励作用。(3)在土地财政与市场化改革的交互影响下,地方政府土地财政行为抑制了市场化改革的生育意愿促进效应,导致育龄人群生育意愿持续走低。研究认为,中国已经进入“瓦格纳加速期”,低生育问题呼吁政府应及时转变投资型财政的发展策略,真正让市场在资源配置中起决定性作用。Land finance and market-oriented reform are the two main lines of understanding China′s socio-economic development in the near to medium term.They not only shape and lead the macroeconomic operation and social structural changes,but also profoundly change the behavior and decision-making of micro individuals.This article uses Chinese General Social Survey and combines various macro data to explore the impact and significance of land finance and market-oriented reforms on the fertility intention of people.Research has found that:(1)Local government land finance has had a negative impact on the fertility willingness of people of childbearing age by raising housing prices,suppressing government expenditure on people′s livelihood,hindering the development of private economy,and reducing total factor productivity.(2)Marketization is an economic system that is conducive to resource allocation and social welfare growth.It can effectively enhance the social trust and life satisfaction of people of childbearing age,and thus have a positive incentive effect on their willingness to have children.(3)Under the interactive influence of land finance and market-oriented reform,local government land finance behavior suppresses the promotion effect of market-oriented reform on fertility intention,and leads to a continuous decline in fertility intention.The article believes that China has entered a“Wagner acceleration period”,and the issue of low fertility calls on the government to timely change the development strategy of investment oriented finance,allowing the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation.

关 键 词：土地财政 市场化改革 生育意愿 

分 类 号：C913.9[经济管理]