寒潮背景下舟山群岛气温空间插值方案对比评估  

Comparative Analysis of Spatial Interpolation Performance of Different Schemes for Temperature over Zhoushan Islands under Cold Wave Scenario

作　　者：徐哲永 马浩[2] 傅娜 孙轶 卢琪 高大伟[2] XU Zheyong;MA Hao;FU Na;SUN Yi;LU Qi;GAO Dawei(Zhoushan Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Zhoushan 316021;Zhejiang Climate Center,Hangzhou 310052)

机构地区：[1]浙江省舟山市气象局,舟山316021 [2]浙江省气候中心,杭州310052

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第5期630-643,共14页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22D050007);中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2023-052);浙江省气象局重点项目(2022ZD30);舟山市公益性科技项目(2022C31074)资助。

摘　　要：在测站稀疏的海岛地区,如何科学选择插值方案以合理体现气象要素的空间分布特征是精细化监测面临的重要问题。以舟山群岛为例,挑选了有中尺度站观测以来(2014—2021年)影响舟山的8次寒潮过程,对比检验了普通克里格(Ordinary Kriging, OK)、反距离权重(Inverse Distance Weighing, IDW)、ANUSPLIN(以下简称ANU)三种方案的插值效果。针对8次过程的过程最低气温、日最低气温降幅和日平均气温降幅,在53个测站中随机选取11个检验站点,发现ANU的插值误差高于OK和IDW。进一步设计了周边站点密集、周边站点稀疏、检验站点脱离本岛三组插值试验,分析表明,ANU的插值表现与周边站点的密集程度息息相关:当周边站点密集时,ANU的插值误差小于OK和IDW;当周边站点稀疏时,ANU的插值误差明显高于OK和IDW。在周边站点密集分布的情形下,无论检验站点位于舟山本岛还是零散小岛上,ANU均能取得最优插值效果,说明在气温插值中ANU对地形的依赖相对较小,插值精度对插值效果的影响亦较小。Compared to inland areas,meteorological stations in the island regions appear scarce and unevenly distributed,which leads to noteworthy uncertainty in detailed characterisation of various meteorological elements.For the Zhoushan Islands,located in Southeast China,there exist many islands and islets,and the local terrain is quite complex.Therefore,different interpolation strategies usually generate diverse gridded results,which largely influence the reliability and accuracy of operational climate monitoring and diagnosing.Under the background of climate change,the Zhoushan region is frequently invaded by cold waves in recent years,so how to scientifically choose an interpolation scheme to reasonably represent spatial distribution characteristics of temperature becomes an important issue in local climate operations.To solve this problem,based on the index of root mean square error(RMSE),the interpolation effect of Ordinary Kriging(OK),Inverse Distance Weighting(IDW),and ANUSPLIN(ANU)are comparatively analysed for 8 cold wave processes influencing Zhoushan during 2014-2021.Two subdivided indices,i.e.,temporal RMSE(TRMSE)and spatial RMSE(SRMSE)are further designed to evaluate the interpolation results on temporal and spatial dimensions respectively.Eleven stations are randomly selected from the total 53 meteorological observational stations to test the interpolation results of OK,IDW,and ANU for the minimum temperature,reduction of daily minimum temperature and daily-mean temperature in the 8 processes.It can be found that the bias in the ANU case is higher than that in the OK and IDW cases.To explain such a phenomenon,3 interpolation experiments with dense surrounding stations,sparse surrounding stations,and specific distribution of examining stations(all the examining stations are not distributed in the main island of Zhoushan)are further designed.The results demonstrate that the performance of the ANU strategy is closely linked to the spread situation of peripheral stations.When the surrounding stations are concen

关 键 词：舟山群岛 寒潮 普通克里格 反距离权重 ANUSPLIN 最低气温 日平均气温 降温幅度 插值试验 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458