基于随机场模型的土石坝失效概率分析研究进展  

Research Progress on Failure Probability Analysis of Earth-Rockfill Dams Based on RandomField Models

作　　者：汪卫 廖志浩 廖杰林 WANG Wei;LIAO Zhihao;LIAO Jielin(Guangzhou Pearl Institute Engineering Survey and Design Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510610,China)

机构地区：[1]广州珠科院工程勘察设计有限公司,广东广州510610

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第10期114-123,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金(2023A1515010754)。

摘　　要：土石坝内部岩土体物理力学参数具有较强的空间变异性,随机场模型能够通过科学的方法对其进行准确建模和失效概率分析,有助于更好地评估大坝渗流、稳定和抗震性能。回顾了随机场模型的相关理论,总结了以往研究中常用的协方差和自相关函数,介绍了7种随机场模型的生成方法及其优缺点,并对随机场统计特征的含义进行了说明。从渗流、稳定、静力和动力分析4个方面综述了随机场模型在土石坝失效概率分析中的国内外应用实例,包括获取更准确的渗流、稳定和静动力计算结果,分析土石坝材料参数的敏感性,以及对于参数反演问题和建立大坝监控模型等方面的重要作用。未来的研究包括考虑非达西渗流、三维精细化建模以及应用新的采样技术等。相关成果可为基于随机场模型的土石坝失效概率分析研究提供参考。The physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil inside earth-rockfill dams have strong spatial variability.Random field models can accurately model and analyze failure probability through scientific methods,which helps to better evaluate dam seepage,stability,and seismic performance.This paper reviewed relevant theories of random field models,summarized commonly used covariance and autocorrelation functions in previous research,introduced seven methods for generating random field models and their advantages and disadvantages,and explained the meaning of random field statistical characteristics.This paper summarized domestic and international application examples of random field models in failure probability analysis of earth-rockfill dams from four aspects:seepage,stability,static,and dynamic analysis,including obtaining more accurate seepage,stability,and static dynamic calculation results,analyzing the sensitivity of material parameters of earth-rockfill dams,and playing an important role in parameter inversion problems and establishing dam monitoring models.Future research includes considering non-Darcy flow,3D fine modeling,and applying new sampling techniques.The relevant achievements can provide a reference for the failure probability analysis of earthrockfill dams based on random field models.

关 键 词：随机场 土石坝 空间变异性 失效概率分析 

分 类 号：TV41[水利工程—水工结构工程]