“双碳”目标下上海市中远期经济增长和电力需求预测  

Forecast of Medium and Long-Term Economic Growth and Electricity Demand in Shanghai under the"Double Carbon"Goal

作　　者：宋天立 缪林鑫 黄阮明 刘子秋 吴妍雨 SONG Tianli;MIAO Linxin;HUANG Ruanming;LIU Ziqiu;WU Yanyu(Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shanghai City Electric Power Co.,Ltd.;China Electric Power Engineering Consulting Group East China Electric Power Design Institute;Economics School of Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]国网上海市电力有限公司经济技术研究院 [2]中国电力工程顾问集团华东电力设计院有限公司 [3]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《上海节能》2024年第10期1588-1595,共8页Shanghai Energy Saving

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标背景下,宏观经济和能源结构将对电力需求带来不可忽视的影响。上海作为中国的经济中心和最重要的电力消费市场之一,亟须考虑影响电力需求的主要因素及其变化趋势。利用CGE模型,基于“双碳”政策目标和上海重点产业发展政策预测上海市宏观经济与产业结构,并采用终端能源消费法与分部门分析法预测上海市中远期总体和分部门电力需求变化趋势。研究发现,上海全社会终端能源消费按照政策目标在2030年达峰,而电力需求将在2050年达到峰值,此后工业电力需求随电气化率的提高而逐步下降,交通和建筑电力需求的增速放缓而进入下行通道。因此,建议上海进一步加快产业结构转型,聚焦重点领域的碳中和行动,加速推动绿色技术转型,同时,电力供应部门也需根据电力需求的趋势合理布局,以保障“双碳”目标顺利实现。In the context of the"Double Carbon"goal,the macro economy and energy structure will have a non-negligible impact on electricity demand.As China's economic center and one of the most important electricity consumer markets,Shanghai urgently needs to consider the main factors affecting electricity demand and their changing trends.The CGE model is used to predict the macro economy and industrial structure of Shanghai City based on the"Double Carbon"policy goals and Shanghai's key industrial development policies,and the terminal energy consumption method and sub-sector analysis method are used to predict the change trend of overall and sub-sector power demand in Shanghai City in the medium and long term.The study found that terminal energy consumption in Shanghai's entire society will peak in 2030 in accordance with policy goals,while power demand will peak in 2050.Since then,industrial power demand will gradually decline with the increase of electrification rate,and the growth rate of transportation and construction power demand will slow down and enter the downward channel.Therefore,it is recommended that Shanghai further accelerate the transformation of its industrial structure,focus on carbon neutrality actions in key areas,and accelerate the transformation of green technologies.At the same time,the power supply sector also needs to rationally deploy according to the trend of power demand to ensure the smooth realization of the"Double Carbon"goal.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳中和 电力需求 能源结构 产业发展 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F127[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X322