构建儿童消化性溃疡预测模型并分析其预测效能  

Establishment of prediction of peptic ulcer in children and analysis on its prediction efficiency

作　　者：何舒丽 段金涛 李娟[1] HE Shuli;DUAN Jintao;LI Juan(Department of Gastroenterology,Kunming Municipal Children s Hospital,Kunming Yunnan 650100,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明市儿童医院消化内科,云南昆明650100

出　　处：《云南医药》2024年第5期65-68,共4页Medicine and Pharmacy of Yunnan

摘　　要：目的初步建立云南省儿童消化性溃疡预测模型,并分析其预测效能。方法纳入171例消化性溃疡的患儿为观察组,150例慢性胃炎患儿为对照组。用单因素和多因素统计学方法对比分析2组患儿的临床资料和实验室指标差异,将有统计学差异的相关因素代入logistic模型,判断儿童消化性溃疡发生的危险因素,所得结果构建儿童消化道溃疡预测模型。采用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验及ROC曲线分析该模型的校准度及预测效能。结果合并并发症、HB、CRP、胆汁酸、13碳呼气试验及大便隐血异常等是儿童发生消化性溃疡的危险因素。预测模型预测儿童消化道溃疡的AUC为0.834(0.743~0.926),灵敏度为81.25%,特异度为76.39%。结论依据影响儿童发生消化性溃疡的诸多因素所构建的预测模型具有较高的校准度和预测效能。Objective To establish the prediction model of peptic ulcer in children in Yunnan Province,and analyze its prediction efficiency.Methods A total of 171 children with peptic ulcer were included as observation group and 150 children with chronic gastritis as control group.Single factor and multivariate statistical methods were used to compare and analyze the differences of clinical data and laboratory indexes between the two groups,and the related factors with statistical differences were substituted into logistic model to judge the risk factors of peptic ulcer in children,and the prediction model of digestive ulcer in children was constructed based on the results.Hosmer-Lemeshow test and ROC curve were used to analyze the calibration degree and prediction efficiency of the model.Results Complications,HB,CRP,ERS,bile acid,13-carbon breath test and abnormal occult blood in stool were the risk factors of peptic ulcer in children.The AUC of the prediction model for digestive tract ulcer in children was 0.834(0.743~0.926),with a sensitivity of 81.25%and a specificity of 76.39%.Conclusions The prediction model based on many factors affecting the occurrence of peptic ulcer in children has high calibration and prediction efficiency.

关 键 词：儿童消化性溃疡 预测模型 临床价值 

分 类 号：R725.7[医药卫生—儿科]