Impact of COVID-19 Interventions on Respiratory and Intestinal Infectious Disease Notifications-Jiangsu Province,China,2020–2023  

作　　者：Ziying Chen Xin Liu Jinxing Guan Yingying Shi Wendong Liu Zhihang Peng Jianli Hu 

机构地区：[1]School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing City,Jiangsu Province,China [2]Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing City,Jiangsu Province,China [3]National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,China [4]Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency,Nanjing City,Jiangsu Province,China.

出　　处：《China CDC weekly》2024年第41期1059-1064,I0003,共7页中国疾病预防控制中心周报（英文）

基　　金：supported by grants from the Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Discipline(No.ZDXK202250);the Scientific Research Project of Jiangsu Provincial Health Commission(No.DX202302);National Natural Science Foun dation of China(No.82320108018);National Key R&D Program of China(Nos.2023YFC2306004,2022YFC2304000).

摘　　要：Introduction:Many measures implemented to control the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic have reshaped the epidemic patterns of other infectious diseases.This study estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and potential changes following reopening.Methods:The optimal intervention and counterfactual models were selected from the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA),neural network autoregression(NNAR),and hybrid models based on the minimum mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)in the test set.The relative change rate between the actual notification rate and that predicted by the optimal model was calculated for the entire COVID-19 epidemic prevention period and the“reopening”period.Results:Compared with the predicted notification rate based on the counterfactual model,the total relative change rates for the 9 infectious diseases were−44.24%,respiratory infections(−55.41%),and intestinal infections(−26.59%)during 2020–2022.Compared with the predicted notification rate based on the intervention model,the total relative change rates were+247.98%,respiratory infections(+389.59%),and intestinal infections(+50.46%)in 2023.Among them,the relative increases in influenza(+499.98%)and hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)(+70.97%)were significant.Conclusions:Measures taken in Jiangsu Province in response to COVID-19 effectively constrained the spread of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases.Influenza and HFMD rebounded significantly after the lifting of COVID-19 intervention restrictions.

关 键 词：IMPACT LIFTING PREVENTION 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学] R563.1[医药卫生—临床医学]