Industrialization,FDI Inflow and Climate Change in Africa:A Scenario Analysis  

作　　者：Muhammad ALI Emmanuel O.AWE Salam S.MOHAMMED Kazeem O.ISAH 

机构地区：[1]Department of Economics,Prince Abubakar Audu University(PAAU)P.M.B 1008,Ayingba,Kogi State,Nigeria [2]Department of Economics,Faculty of Art and Social Sciences Nile University,Plot 681,Research and Institutions Area Airport Road,Jabi 900108,Abuja,Nigeria [3]Department of Economics,Prince Abubakar Audu University PAAU,P.M.B 1008,Ayingba,Kogi State,Nigeria [4]Department of Economics,University of KwaZulu-Natal University Road,Westville,Private Bag X 54001 Durban,South Africa

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies》2024年第1期43-62,共20页中国城市与环境研究（英文）

摘　　要：Despite their promises of wealth creation,productivity increase,and improved living circumstances in Africa,industrialization,and foreign direct investment(FDI)inflows have the potential to endanger the continent’s climate,particularly given the nature of energy intensity and associated emissions connected with their expansion.Thus,this study empirically examined the extent to which industrialization and FDI inflows contribute to the predictability of climate change in Africa,focusing on the top 10 greenhouse gas(GHG)emitting countries on the continent with data spanning from 1990 to 2023.Employing a bias-adjusted ordinary least square estimation technique,we considered both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts that include several scenario analyses.We reveal both industrialization and FDI inflows as significant predictors of climate change in Africa but with varying degrees of environmental threats.This provides the foundation for,among other things,the suggestion that African continental and sub-regional bodies consider the need for differences in climate commitment strategies across the region based on the varying nature and magnitude of manufacturing intensity and FDI inflows,as well as associated GHG emissions and the nature of climate change vulnerability.

关 键 词：Climate change FDI INDUSTRIALIZATION PREDICTABILITY scenario analysis 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]