山区高速公路交通事故与行车环境关联研究  

Correlation between Traffic Accidents and Driving Environmenton Mountainous Expressways

作　　者：胡立伟[1] 杨志莹 胡飞宇 武加宝 王兴中 余先林 HU Liwei;YANG Zhiying;HU Feiyu;WU Jiabao;WANG Xingzhong;YU Xianlin(Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期149-159,共11页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42277476).

摘　　要：我国西部山区气候变化大,高速公路道路线形复杂,高危路段多,导致引发交通事故的环境因素过多,辨识山区高速公路行车环境风险,可以有效预防交通事故的发生.通过Bow-Tie向前分析山区高速公路行车环境因素(包括道路环境因素、交通环境因素、自然环境因素),结合最小割集等方法初步推理交通事故中行车环境因素的结构重要度,向后结合三角模糊数对事故发生后的安全措施进行模糊失效概率分析.基于贝叶斯网络模型(BN)结合交通事故后验概率得到各因素的危害重要度及其敏感性,实现山区高速公路交通事故风险与行车环境关联性研究,并针对交通事故发生及后果提出有效防范措施.结果显示,道路环境因素危害重要度最高,其敏感性也较高,是导致山区高速公路交通事故的重要中间事件.本文研究成果对于降低山区高速公路交通事故风险,提高行车环境安全具有重要的理论价值与现实意义.In the western mountainous regions of China,where climate change is significant and expressway road layouts are intricate,numerous high-risk sections contribute to a multitude of environmental factors leading to traffic accidents.Identifying risks associated with the driving environment on mountainous expressways can effectively prevent accidents.This study employs Bow-Tie analysis to proactively analyze driving environment factors on mountainous expressways,including road environment,traffic environment,and natural environment factors.By employing methods such as minimum cut sets,the structural importance of driving environment factors in traffic accidents is initially inferred.Subsequently,employing backward analysis and triangular fuzzy numbers,a fuzzy failure probability analysis is conducted on safety measures after accidents occur.Furthermore,based on the Bayesian Network(BN)model,combined with posterior probabilities of traffic accidents,the harm importance and sensitivity of each factor are obtained.This approach facilitates research on the correlation between traffic accidents and driving environment in mountainous expressways,allowing for the proposal of effective preventive measures against accidents and their consequences.The results indicate that road environment factors have the highest harm importance and are highly sensitive,making them crucial intermediate events leading to traffic accidents on mountainous expressways.The findings of this study hold significant theoretical value and practical significance in reducing the risk of traffic accidents and enhancing driving environment safety on mountainous expressways.

关 键 词：交通工程 山区高速公路 交通事故风险 Bow-Tie-BN 行车环境 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]