宽泛统计口径和特殊统计技巧掩盖下台湾地区粮食对外依赖分析  

Analysis of Taiwan's region extreme external food dependence under the cover of broad statistical caliber and special statistical techniques

作　　者：许天成 李书琪 陈会玲[1] Xu Tiancheng;Li Shuqi;Chen Huiling(School of Economics,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan,Hubei 430048)

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学经济学院,湖北武汉430048

出　　处：《粮食科技与经济》2024年第4期8-11,共4页Food Science And Technology And Economy

摘　　要：台湾地区作为拥有2 300多万人口的省份,由于耕地面积有限,粮食对外依赖度高达七成,粮农组织资料显示台湾地区每年粮食进口量高达800万~900万t。为了让粮食自给率数值较为可观,台湾地区在统计时特意选择比较宽泛的口径来计算。根据台湾地区“行政院”农业委员会统计室2012—2021年的数据,对台湾地区采取的特殊计算方法下的粮食自给率进行分析,揭示了台湾地区宽泛统计口径下依然难掩粮食对外依赖的长期趋势和现实,深入剖析台湾地区粮食进出口的时空和品种结构,并细分统计台湾地区农产品进出口流向和金额,根据以上数据与结论对近未来时段台湾地区粮食贸易的演化趋势做出分析与预测,以及台海作为地缘政治热点地区的粮食进口前景。As a province with a population of more than 23 million,Taiwan's region food dependence on the outside world is as high as 70%due to the limited area of arable land,and FAO data shows that Taiwan region imports between 8 and 9 million tons of food annually.In order to make the value of the food self-sufficiency rate more impressive,Taiwan region deliberately chooses a broader caliber for calculation when conducting statistics.This paper analyzed the food self-sufficiency rate under the special calculation method adopted by Taiwan region based on the data from the Statistics Office of the Council of Agriculture of Executive Yuan from 2012 to 2021,revealing the long-term trend and reality of Taiwan's region external dependence on food that was still difficult to hide under the broad statistical caliber,analyzing the spatial-temporal and varietal structure of Taiwan's region food imports and exports,and providing a breakdown of the import and export flows of Taiwan's region agricultural products and their amounts.Based on the above data and conclusions,it analyzed and predicted the evolution trend of Taiwan's region grain trade in the near-future timeframe,as well as the prospects of grain imports in the Taiwan Strait as a geopolitical hotspot.

关 键 词：台湾地区 粮食自给率 粮食进出口 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]