基于CERES-Maize模型的土壤健康相关因素对旱地玉米产量影响的优化模拟  

Optimized simulation of the impact of soil health-related factors on dryland maize yield based on the CERES-Maize model

作　　者：张浩然 朱艳 马占利 何静 高雪慧 周琦翔 郭春梅 宋利兵 ZHANG Haoran;ZHU Yan;MA Zhanli;HE Jing;GAO Xuehui;ZHOU Qixiang;GUO Chunmei;SONG Libing(College of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production&Construction Group,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Key Laboratory of Northwest Oasis Water-Saving Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832000 [3]农业农村部西北绿洲节水农业重点实验室,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2024年第5期216-225,共10页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52169011);新疆生产建设兵团科技计划项目(2023CB010);石河子大学创新发展专项(CXFZ202106)。

摘　　要：基于2013—2015年玉米灌溉试验,对DSSAT-CERES-Maize模型参数进行校准和验证,评估该模型在关中地区对旱地农业的适用性。利用2013年和2014年的全灌溉试验对模型进行校准,利用2015年全灌溉试验数据对模型进行验证,结果表明,实测值和模拟值都表现出了较好的一致性,均方根误差与归一化均方根误差均小于10%,模型效率均大于90%,说明模型模拟效果良好。利用1981—2020年气象数据和土壤健康相关因素优化调整,将模拟年份分为丰水年、平水年、枯水年,对不同典型年的产量进行模拟分析,发现在旱地农业中,土壤排水上限增加20%,作物增产8.1%,水分利用效率增加17.4%,蒸发蒸腾量减少7.1%;在增加土壤反照率、排水上限、土壤有机碳等综合模拟下旱地玉米产量提升了11.6%;综合模拟情景下,枯水年产量增长比例最高。综上所述,CERES-Maize模型可应用于关中地区旱地玉米研究,在枯水年土壤健康管理中可发挥出更大的节水增效潜力。Based on three-year(2013-2015) irrigation experiments on maize,the parameters of the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model were calibrated and validated to evaluate its applicability to dryland agriculture in the Guanzhong region.This model was calibrated using full irrigation experiments in 2013 and 2014 and validated using data from the 2015 full irrigation experiment.Results showed consistency between the measured and simulated values.The root mean square error and the normalized root mean square error were both below 10%,and the model efficiency was greater than 90%,indicating a good simulation effect.Meteorological data from 1981 to 2020 and soil health-related factors were optimized and adjusted to explore the impact of optimizing soil health-related factors on dryland maize yields.The yields were simulated according to wet years,normal years,and dry years,respectively.The simulation analysis showed that increasing the soil drainage upper limit by 20% in dryland agriculture led to an 8.1% increase in maize yield,a 17.4% improvement in water use efficiency,and a 7.1% reduction in evapotranspiration.Under a comprehensive simulation that included increased soil albedo,drainage upper limit,soil organic carbon,and other factors,dryland maize yield increased by 11.6%.In the comprehensive simulation scenario,the highest increase in yield occurred in dry years,indicating that improving soil health improved soil retention moisture and significantly promoted the growth and development of dryland maize.In conclusion,the CERES-Maize model can be effectively applied to studying dryland maize in the Guanzhong region.During periods of low water flow,effective soil health management can significantly enhance water conservation and efficiency,thereby unlocking greater potential.

关 键 词：旱地玉米产量 DSSAT-CERES-Maize模型 土壤健康参数 优化 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学] S159