珠海市16方位风速极值分布特征  

Distribution Characteristics of the 16-azimuth Wind Speed Extreme Values in Zhuhai

作　　者：王静 苏昱丞 孙磊 吴志棚 崔世洁 WANG Jing;SU Yucheng;SUN Lei;WU Zhipeng;CUI Shijie(Zhuhai Public Meteorological Service Center,Zhuhai 519000)

机构地区：[1]珠海市公共气象服务中心,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《广东气象》2024年第5期21-25,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：广东省气象局科技项目(GRMC2022Z06、GRMC2023M53、GRMC2020M26)。

摘　　要：为了更精确地定量描述珠海市的极端大风情况,采用基于POT的广义Pareto分布(GPD)方法,对珠海市2004—2022年逐日10 min最大风观测数据,分别进行了全风向风速和16方位风速的极值模拟,结果表明:香洲区东部、海岛、金湾区和高栏港西部的风速平均阈值较大。极端大风重现水平也最高,50和100 a重现期的重现水平分别达到了30和38 m/s以上,其中高栏港西部、海岛不仅平均大风较多,发生破纪录的极端大风概率也较大;大部分地区的极值指标较大,极端大风事件之间近似独立;斗门北部、高栏港、香洲东部的极端大风近年有明显增加的趋势。珠海大部分站点最大的极端大风风向都为NE、ENE和NNE。极端大风除了受到天气系统的影响,地形的影响也不可忽视。To obtain quantitative description of the extreme high wind conditions in Zhuhai more accu-rately,this paper simulated the extreme values of direction-free wind speeds and wind speeds at all 16 azimuths using the daily maximum 10-min wind observations in the city from 2004 to 2022,by means of the Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD)method based on POT.The results are shown as follows.The average wind speed threshold is relatively large in the east of Xiangzhou District,the city's island,Jinwan District and the west of Gaolan Port.The return level of extreme high wind is also the highest,with 50-and 100-year return levels being at or above 30 and 38 m/s,respectively.Among them,the west of Gaolan Port and the island not only have more average high winds,but also have a greater probability of record-breaking extreme high winds.In most areas,the extreme value indicators are large,and the extreme high wind events are nearly independent.Extreme high winds in the north of Doumen District,Gaolan Port and the east of Xiangzhou tended to increase significantly in recent years.The largest extreme high winds at most stations of Zhuhai are from the directions of NE,ENE and NNE.In addition to being affected by the weather system,the extreme high wind is also subjected to the impact of the terrain.

关 键 词：气候学 16方位风速极值 广义PARETO分布 珠海市 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]