人民币汇率波动对中国木质林产品进口量的非对称影响——基于NARDL模型的实证研究  

The Asymmetric Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on China's ImportsofWood Forest Products:An Empirical Analysis Based on NARDL Model

作　　者：朱岩松 ZHU Yansong(Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《对外经贸实务》2024年第7期36-44,共9页Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade

摘　　要：本文基于2008年第1季度至2022年第4季度的季度数据,运用NARDL模型实证分析人民币汇率波动对中国木质林产品进口量的非对称影响。结果发现:①人民币汇率波动对中国原木、锯材进口量存在非对称影响,对木浆不存在非对称影响,汇率波动增大会减少原木、锯材、木浆的进口量(不显著、-0.286、-0.236),波动减小会增加原木、锯材、木浆的进口量(-0.360、-0.603、-0.318)。②汇率波动对中国原木进口量的影响源于人民币汇率波动减少而非增加。基于实证研究结果,本文给出了健全和完善国内林产品风险规避市场、在木质林产品出口国建立木材生产基地、使用人民币作为计价货币来规避汇率风险的建议。Based on the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2022,this paper uses the NARDL model to empirically analyze the asymmetric effects of RMB exchange rate volatilities on China's wood forest product imports.We found that:(1)the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has an asymmetric impact on the import volume of logs and sawn timber,but not on wood pulp.The increase of exchange rate volatility will reduce the import volume of logs,sawnwood and wood pulp(insignificant,-0.286,-0.236 respectively),while decreased volatility increases their import volumes(-0.360,-0.603,-0.318,respectively).(2)The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China's log imports is driven by a decrease in RMB exchange rate volatility rather than an increase.Based on the empirical research findings,this paper gives some suggestions for improving the domestic forest product risk avoidance market,establishing wood production bases in wood forest product exporting countries,and using RMB as the pricing currency to mitigate exchange rate risks.

关 键 词：汇率波动 木质林产品进口 非对称性 NARDL 

分 类 号：F746.2/.9[经济管理—国际贸易]