“一带一路”背景下广东与东盟国家贸易格局演变及影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Evolution of Trade Patterns and Influencing Factors betweenGuangdong and ASEAN Countries under the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：廖东声[1] 邓秋怡 庄定鹏 LIAO Dongsheng;DENG Qiuyi;ZHUANG Dingpeng(Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning,Guangxi 530006,China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学,广西南宁530006

出　　处：《对外经贸实务》2024年第7期71-80,共10页Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade

基　　金：陆海经济一体化协同创新中心2022年度科研项目“西部陆海新通道产业低碳化集聚机制研究”(编号:2022ZD02);国家社科基金项目“数字赋能西南边境地区返乡创业帮扶机制构建与实现路径研究”(编号:22XJY003)。

摘　　要：在“一带一路”倡议下,广东与东盟国家之间的贸易关系呈现出新的发展机遇,因此对双边贸易进行研究具有重要的价值。本文运用贸易强度指数、HM指数、贸易引力模型分析了在“一带一路”背景下广东与东盟十国贸易格局的时空演变及其影响因素。研究结果表明:广东与东盟国家之间的贸易规模不断扩大,双边贸易差额逐渐减小;马来西亚成为广东最重要的贸易伙伴,其次是泰国,新加坡的贸易伙伴地位有所下降;广东与东盟国家的进出口贸易紧密程度越来越强,广东出口对东盟整体市场的依赖性很小但呈现逐渐增强的趋势;广东省人均GDP、东盟各国人均GDP和人口规模、贸易自由度对广东与东盟国家双边贸易具有正向推动作用,广东省人口规模、首都(府)间距离和加权平均关税对广东与东盟国家双边贸易具有反向阻碍作用。Under the Belt and Road Initiative,the trade relationship between Guangdong and ASEAN countries has presented new development opportunities,making the study of bilateral trade highly valuable.This paper employs the Trade Intensity Index,HM Index,and Trade Gravity Model to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of Guangdong's trade pattern with the ten ASEAN countries under the context of the Belt and Road initiative and its influencing factors.The research findings indicate that the trade volume between Guangdong and ASEAN countries continues to expand,while the bilateral trade difference gradually decreases.Malaysia has emerged as Guangdong’s most important trading partner,followed by Thailand,while Singapore's position as a trading partner has declined.The intensity of import and export trade between Guangdong and ASEAN countries is increasing,with Guangdong's export dependence on the ASEAN market being relatively low but showing an increasing trend.Factors such as per capita GDP of Guangdong,per capita GDP of ASEAN countries,population size,and trade liberalization have a positive effect on bilateral trade between Guangdong and ASEAN countries,while the population size of Guangdong,distance between capitals,and weighted average tariffs negatively impact bilateral trade.

关 键 词：一带一路 广东 东盟 贸易格局 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]