世界增加值贸易网络演化及形成机理——基于复杂网络方法  

The Evolution and Mechanism Formation of World Value-Added Trade Network:Based on Complex Network Analysis Method

作　　者：葛纯宝 于津平[2] 陈京 李娜[4] Ge Chunbao;Yu Jinping;Chen Jing;Li Na

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学合肥高等研究院,江苏现代服务业协同创新中心 [2]南京大学商学院 [3]清华大学公共管理学院 [4]新疆大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第10期74-93,111,共21页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“推动‘一带一路’贸易和投资自由化便利化研究:量化评价与推进战略”(1BVDL014);安徽省高校科研重点项目“RCEP和‘一带一路’背景下安徽省探索打造贸易便利化示范区的研究”(2024AH052139)资助。

摘　　要：全球价值链分工改变了世界生产范式,促使各国价值流动和贸易关系趋于复杂,对世界贸易网络体系和各国贸易网络地位产生了深刻影响。考察世界国内增加值贸易网络演化规律,探讨其形成机理,对揭示国际贸易网络分布格局,把握全球经贸格局演进趋势,推动新一轮全球经贸规则治理策略意义重大。文章基于UNCTAD-Eora增加值贸易数据,采用复杂网络方法评价了2003—2021年世界国内增加值贸易网络演变特征,结果表明:世界国内增加值贸易网络不断扩大、联系日趋紧密和区域化、融合度逐渐加深,已形成以德国、美国和中国为中心和“桥梁”的“多极化”分布格局和联结疏密差异明显但结构相对稳定的五大社团凝聚子群;“一带一路”与非“一带一路”国家贸易地位差距趋于波动收窄。采用TERGM模型进行网络模拟发现,关系偏好连接效应、三元传递闭合效应、各国GDP、制度质量、关税率、贸易便利化水平、共同边界、区域贸易协定网络和历史殖民关系网络是世界国内增加值贸易网络形成的决定因素,各因素的积极影响不仅在不同区域和阶段有明显差异,而且会随国家贸易网络地位的提升而增强。The division of labor in GVCs has changed the paradigm of world production,and has had a profound impact on the system of world trade networks and the status of countries'trade networks.Different from aggregate trade,DVA mainly redefines import and export of value added from the demand side,emphasizing that net value added can overcome the problem of"double-counting"in traditional trade statistics,so as to objectively reveal the trade benefits gained by countries participating in the international division of labor.In the GVC network,the scale of DVA trade can reflect a country's participation in the international division of labor and product production,such as research and development,input factors,processing and manufacturing,distribution and after-sales service and many other aspects of the degree of division of labor and division of labor status,and the level of the status of the division of labor is directly a country's value-added capacity,the level of competitive advantage,and even the size of the right to formulate rules of international trade and commerce and the size of the right to speak.Examining the evolutionary characteristics of the world's DVA trade network and exploring the formation mechanism behind it are of great significance in revealing the distribution pattern of international trade networks,grasping the trend of the evolution of global economic and trade patterns,and promoting the governance strategy of the new round of global economic and trade rules.Based on UNCTAD-Eora value-added trade data,this paper evaluates the evolutionary characteristics of the world domestic value-added trade network from 2003 to 2021 by using the CNA method.The results show that:the world DVA trade network has been expanding,becoming more and more closely connected and regionalized,and the degree of integration has deepened,and a"multi-dimensional"network has been formed with Germany,the United States and China as the center and the"bridge",and the"multi-faceted"network has been formed,as well as five cohesive

关 键 词：国内增加值贸易 复杂网络分析 TERGM模型 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]