考虑居民用户动态行为的负荷聚合商决策分析  

Decision Analysis of Load Aggregator Considering Dynamic Behavior of Residential Users

作　　者：赵先海 刘晓峰 季振亚 李峰 刘国宝 ZHAO Xianhai;LIU Xiaofeng;JI Zhenya;LI Feng;LIU Guobao(School of Electrical and Automation Engineering,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学电气与自动化工程学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《中国电力》2024年第10期179-189,共11页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52107100);江苏省高等学校基础科学(自然科学)研究项目(23KJB470020)。

摘　　要：负荷聚合商充分发掘负荷的需求响应潜力,对于节能减排具有重要意义。为研究居民行为对聚合商决策的影响,提出考虑居民用户动态行为的负荷聚合商决策分析方法。首先,考虑居民参与需求响应的多重影响因素,基于马尔可夫生成有限理性决策行为模型,从而预测用户参与度;其次,采用信息间隙决策理论来处理用户参与度不确定性问题,将聚合商分成风险投机型和风险规避型;最后,量化评估机会利润和风险损失,具有不同风险偏好的聚合商据此选取适宜的负荷削减策略,以确保期望收益的最大化。算例结果表明:居民用户信息不完整时,该方法能够有效处理居民用户参与需求响应的不确定性问题,负荷聚合商能够更合理地进行决策以保证期望收益。Fully tapping into the demand response potential of load aggregators is of great significance for energy conservation and emission reduction.To study the impact of resident behavior on aggregator decision-making,this paper proposes a load aggregator decision-making analysis method that considers the dynamic behavior of resident users.Firstly,considering the multiple influencing factors of resident participation in demand response,a Markov based bounded rationality decision behavior model is generated to predict user participation level.Secondly,the information gap decision theory is adopted to address the uncertainty of user participation level,and the aggregators are divided into risk investment type and risk avoidance type.Finally,by quantitatively evaluating the opportunity profits and risk losses,the aggregators with different risk preferences can select appropriate load reduction strategies based on this algorithm to ensure the maximization of expected returns.The case study results show that when the information of resident users is incomplete,the proposed method can effectively deal with the uncertainty of resident user participation in demand response,and the load aggregators can more reasonably make decisions to ensure expected returns.

关 键 词：居民需求响应 马尔可夫 用户参与度 信息间隙决策理论 不确定性 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]