梨树始花期与气象因子的影响分析及预报模型建立  

Analysis of the influence of meteorological factors and forecasting model building for the flowering phase of pear

作　　者：邓锐捷 陈志龙 蔡欣明 赵桂琼 DENG Ruijie;CHEN Zhilong;CAI Xinming;ZHAO Guiqiong(Chengdu Xinjin District Meteorological Bureau,Chengdu 611432,China)

机构地区：[1]成都市新津区气象局,四川成都611432

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2024年第20期103-108,共6页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：为开展梨属植物开花期精细化气象服务,提升梨树始花期预报精度。本研究基于1999—2023年四川成都新津区梨树物候观测数据与气象资料,采用Julian日换算法分析梨树始花期特征,运用数理统计方法分析梨树始花期与气象因子的相关性。选取1999—2018年数据资料,利用逐步回归法建立梨树始花期预报模型,并利用2019—2023年数据进行模型预报检验。梨树始花期特征表明,梨树始花期在3月上旬至3月下旬,常年平均始花期在3月13日,始花期最早和最晚相差22 d,花期持续日数最短与最长相差14 d。相关性结果显示,始花期与花前14 d平均最低气温呈负相关(P<0.01),与花前21 d降水日数呈正相关(P<0.05),花前14 d的7日滑动平均气温稳定通过11.6℃后3~10 d为梨树进入始花期的气象指标;梨树花期持续日数与雨日、降水量、日照时数呈正相关(P<0.05),小雨天气有利于延长花期。预报模型建立和检验结果表明,通过当年1—2月≥0℃活动积温和1月最高气温能有效预报梨树始花期,较常年花期提前13 d进行预测。本研究为梨花观赏精准化的气象服务提供参考。To develop refined meteorological services for pear plant flowering period and improve the prediction accuracy of pear first flowering period in Xinjin District Chendu of Sichuan Province.Based on the phenological and meteorological data of pear trees in the research area from 1999 to 2023,the Julian day conversion method was used to analyze the characteristics of pear tree first flowering date,and the mathematical statistics method was used to analyze the correlation between pear tree first flowering date and meteorological factors.The stepwise regression method was used to select the data from 1999 to 2018 to establish the prediction model of pear tree first flowering date.The data from 2019 to 2023 was used to test the model prediction.The characteristics of the first flowering date of pear trees showed that the first flowering date of pear trees was from early to late March,and the average annual first flowering date was March 13.The difference between the earliest and latest first flowering date was 22 days,and the difference between the shortest and the longest flowering duration was 14 days.The correlation analysis results showed that the first flowering stage was negatively correlated with the mean minimum temperature in the 14 days before anthesis(P<0.01),and positively correlated with the rainfall days in the 21 days before anthesis(P<0.05).The 7-day moving average temperature in the 14 days before anthesis was stable through 11.6℃,and 3-10 days after the 7-day moving average temperature in the 14 days before anthesis was a meteorological indicator for pear trees to enter the first flowering stage.The duration of flowering was positively correlated with rain days(P<0.05),rainfall amount and sunshine hours.Light rain was beneficial to prolong flowering period.The establishment and test of the prediction model showed that the accumulated active temperature of January and February(≥0℃)and the maximum temperature of January could effectively predict the first flowering date of pear trees,which was 13

关 键 词：梨树 始花期 气象因子 相关性分析 气象预报模型 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学] S165[农业科学—园艺学]