“双碳”目标下中国能源需求未来走势预测分析  

Analysis and Forecast of China’s Energy Demand under the “Dual Carbon” Goal

作　　者：韩咪 李洪兵 刘可 HAN Mi;LI Hongbing;LIU Ke(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;School of Economics and Management,Chinese and Law,Shandong Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Technology,Dongying Shandong 257061,China;College of Engineering,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu Sichuan 610101,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]山东石油化工学院经济管理与文法学院,山东东营257061 [3]四川师范大学工学院,四川成都610101

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第11期31-37,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：四川省科技计划资助“四川天然气供需安全演化机理研究”(2023NSFSC1038)。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标下准确掌握能源需求对社会经济发展至关重要。文章采用灰色相对关联度对各变量间的相关性进行定量刻画,并诊断自变量是否存在明显多重共线性;运用逐步回归分析法精细化分析能源需求影响因素,挖掘能源需求有效驱动因素,构建“最佳”能源需求函数模型。结果表明:(1)能源价格、消费水平和经济发展水平是中国能源需求的有效驱动因素。(2)基于有效影响因素建立的“最佳”逐步回归双对数能源需求函数模型具有良好的预测性能,可用于中国能源中长期需求预测,预测结果可作为科学制定能源政策的重要参考依据。(3)未来20年中国能源需求增长量主要来源于清洁能源需求量的增长,到2040年中国能源需求量约62.6亿吨标准煤,年均增长率约0.8%。Under the “dual carbon” goals,accurately grasping energy demand is crucial for socio-economic development.The article uses the grey relative association degree to quantitatively depict the correlation between variables and diagnose whether there is obvious multicollinearity in the independent variables.It employs stepwise regression analysis to refine the analysis of factors affecting energy demand,unearth effective drivers of energy demand,and construct an “optimal” energy demand function model.The results show that:(1) Energy price,consumption level and economic development level are effective drivers of energy demand in China.(2) The stepwise regression double logarithmic energy demand function model based on the effective drivers has good forecasting performance and can be used for China’s medium-and long-term energy demand forecasts,and the forecast results can be used as an important reference for the scientific formulation of energy policies.(3) The growth in China’s energy demand over the next 20 years will come mainly from the growth in demand for clean energy,which will be about 6.26 billion tons of standard coal by 2040,with an average annual growth rate of about 0.8%.

关 键 词：需求预测 有效驱动因素 双对数需求函数 灰色关联分析 逐步回归分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F206