西方制裁下俄罗斯经济的两重性:韧性与脆弱性  

The Duality of the Russian Economy under Western Sanctions:Resilience or Vulnerability

作　　者：唐朱昌[1] 杨波 Tang Zhuchang;Yang Bo

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院 [2]上海外国语大学俄罗斯研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第5期18-43,162,共27页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：上海外国语大学校级重大课题“‘一带一路’视域下大国在中亚的软实力比较研究”(2023114004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突爆发以来,西方国家对俄罗斯实施了前所未有的超级制裁。虽然制裁使2022年俄罗斯经济下降2.1%,但从2023年第二季度起,俄罗斯经济出现反弹并在当年实现3.6%的增长,其增速不仅领先于世界平均水平,也高于发达国家。2024年俄罗斯经济依然会延续增长态势。部分学者把俄罗斯当前出现的经济增长态势归因于“经济韧性”,并据此分析了支撑俄罗斯经济韧性的内在逻辑。本文认为,经济韧性的本质特征体现为经济持续增长的能力,所以一国的经济韧性不仅应该包括在内外部发展环境不确定条件下抵御冲击、恢复经济增长的阶段性能力,更应包括基于优化产业结构、深化制度改革、加速科技进步、稳定金融体系等一系列竞争优势之上的持续稳定发展的能力。虽然当前俄罗斯经济展现出抵御外部冲击的阶段性能力,但只体现为第一层面的经济韧性,还远没有形成第二层面的经济韧性。随着俄乌冲突延续和外溢风险不断增大,制裁的“长尾效应”也会随之显现,俄罗斯经济发展的内外部不确定性会随之增加。俄罗斯目前出现的以恢复性增长为特征的阶段性韧性,难以掩盖其经济的结构性脆弱。俄罗斯经济发展前景依然受制于外部环境、经济结构转型、金融发展和科技进步等多种因素。Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the U.S.and the West have imposed super-sanctions on Russia that are unprecedented in the history of world sanctions.While sanctions caused the Russian economy to decline by 2.1% in 2022,the Russian economy rebounded from the second quarter of 2023 and grew by 3.6% that year,ahead of the world average.In 2024,the Russian economy will continue to grow.Russia's economic growth has shattered the West's expectations of an economic collapse and demonstrated its stage-by-stage resilience to external shocks.However,a country's economic resilience should not only include the ability to withstand external shocks and resume economic growth,but also the ability to continue to develop in a stable manner.Therefore,Russia's current economy is only at the first level,and it has not yet developed the second level of economic resilience.With the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the fermentation of the"long-tail effect"of sanctions,the internal and external uncertainties of Russia's economic development will increase.The current phase of resilience,characterized by resilient growth,does not conceal the structural fragility of the Russian economy.The continued resilience of the Russian economy remains subject to a number of factors,including the external environment,structural transformation of the economy,financial development and scientific and technological progress.

关 键 词：俄罗斯经济 恢复性增长 阶段性韧性 结构性脆弱 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济] F113