竞争性战略对大国军事安全竞争的引导与塑造——基于冷战后期的实证考察  

Competitive Strategy and the Steering and Shaping of Great Power Military Security Competition:An Empirical Examination Based on the Late Cold War

作　　者：徐若杰 王思羽 Xu Ruojie;Wang Siyu

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院欧洲研究所 [2]上海外国语大学上海全球治理与区域国别研究院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第5期68-91,163,164,共26页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院2024年度“青启计划”资助项目“当前北约战略转型及对华政策研究(2024QQJH177)”的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：竞争性战略是里根政府为了有效应对美苏竞争,在国防部主导下开创的一种国际安全战略类型,其聚焦点是大国无战争状态下的长期性军事安全竞争。文章从历史缘起、特征与运作逻辑、经典案例和当代意义四个维度,对竞争性战略进行系统性学理研究。作为一种典型的战略陷阱,竞争性战略凭借对竞争双方军事力量优劣势的科学评估,着眼于和平性、长期性、系统性和混合性竞争环境,通过发掘和利用“非对称竞争点”,牵引对手进入对其不利的竞争状态。竞争目标是基于“成本—收益”计算改变对手行为,核心要素是差异化竞争成本,运作过程包括强加竞争、战略牵引、“以压促变”和缔造优势四个环节。对竞争性战略的深入研究不但可以增进对核时代大国竞争互动的理解,同时有助于为进一步思考崛起国如何防范陷入战略竞争陷阱,有效应对和管控大国战略竞争风险提供相应的知识基础。Competitive strategy is a type of international security strategy pioneered by the Reagan administration under the leadership of the Department of Defense in order to effectively deal with the U.S.-Soviet rivalry,focusing on the long-term military security competition among major powers in the absence of war.This paper provides a systematic theoretical study of competitive strategy from four dimensions:historical origin,characteristics and operational logic,historical examples and contemporary significance.As a typical strategic trap,competitive strategy by virtue of the scientific assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the military forces of the two competing sides,with a view to peaceful,long-term,systematic and hybrid1competitive environment,through the discovery and utilization of thee"asymmetriccompetition point",to pull the opponent into the competitive state of its disadvantage.The goal of competition is to change the behavior of rivals based on"cost-benefit"calculation,and the core element is the differentiated competitive cost,and the operation process includes four links,namely,imposing competition,strategic traction,"pressure for change"and creating advantages.An in-depth study of competitive strategy will not only enhance the understanding of the competitive interactions among great powers in the nuclear era,but also help to provide a knowledge base for further reflection on how rising countries can prevent themselves from falling into strategic competition traps and effectively respond to and manage the risks of strategic competition among great powers.

关 键 词：竞争性战略 军事安全竞争 “非对称性”竞争 美苏关系 中美关系 

分 类 号：E11[军事—军事理论]